An unnamed tropical storm is headed for Cebu Province. However, it is expected to strengthen to a Category 1 typhoon before making land fall in Cebu. The storm is dipping into Mindanao a bit further than normal. Davao, for example, has never been hit by a typhoon but it is dangerously close to this one. As this image from Tropical Storm Risk shows below in this 72 hour forecast. It shows the storm near Bacolod and back to a tropical storm a that time.
Un-named Typhoon Takes Aim Upon Cebu
This forecast could change again. Yesterday evening it was predicted to be a tropical storm in Cebu and a category 1 when it made landfall in northern Mindanao. Bogo will be in the upper right quadrant so I hope it isn’t a large storm. As we returned from Tacloban yesterday, storm clouds were beginning to mass. Our departure and one other fast craft were both delayed about 30 minutes. We heard thunder around I guessed that might have been the reason. We did run into some moderate seas about half way to Cebu City from Ormoc City. Nothing to be alarmed about. Just not the smooth as glass that I’ve become accustomed too. There have been thunderstorm off and on since we arrived in Bogo City last night and throughout the day with some short but heavy downpours.
The last storm to hit Cebu turned out to be an almost non-event. However, the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) never classified it as a typhoon. The Philippines has its own weather authority, the PAGASA and it has a different set of classifications. The last storm was classified as a typhoon by PAGASA but only as a tropical storm by TSR.
Tropical storms and above should never be taken lightly. They usually do kill people. The most death from a storm in the Philippines was caused by a tropical storm that lingered for a couple of weeks if I recall correctly. It was even worse than the typhoon that flooded the Manila area a couple of years ago after it sit atop Manila for a few days. That typhoon was referred to as a one hundred year storm though. And the death toll was probably lower because of better prevention and flood control than in years gone by.
Most Filipinos and expats ride these storms out. Though many head for Davao. The trick is to get out quick enough. I’ve known people planning to escape to Davao or other areas in the southern Philippines only to have their flights cancelled as the weather became worse sooner than expected.
I’m amazed at how well some of the homes, some of the nipa huts remain standing. In fact, many of the nipa huts remain standing though more have roof damage and are in need of repair. After typhoon Frank (Fengshen in the Philippines) hit Cebu and Iloilo back in 2008, I was surprised at how little damage there was in Bogo City. There was damage, especially to roads and roofs but I expected it to be much worse for a category three storm. However, nipa huts in the direct path usually are destroyed. So far, I’ve been lucky enough to avoid more than category two winds myself.
Mandaue City and Cebu City have been having problems with flooding several times this year and I expect flash flood to return to those two cities this week. However, one never knows. If the storm continues to track more northerly than expected, it could slam into Bogo City or miss us completely. I’ll vote for a miss if anyone is taking a vote. 
Flooding Likely in Cebu City
I’m not in much danger for this storm, We might get some flooding on the bottom floor but that’s not all that unusual. Three days of heavy rain will do that. It is not underground but it just almost is. I’m on a hill, half way up a small mountain and about a half mile from the coast line. This would be a bad place for a category four storm but I don’t expect significant danger to myself or the home. Those living around me will have a much more difficult time. I hope those coconut trees are far enough away to miss my bedroom if they fall. I suspect they are, but just barely. The banana bushes around will get flattened if we have a significant storm. The last storm to hit Cebu didn’t even knock those down but this is a stronger storm.
Cebu doesn’t get hit a lot of typhoons and we are now out of the typhoon season. The monsoon winds have sifted and that probably plays a role in the more southerly track this storm is taking. You are likely to hear talk of global warming. While I was an early skeptic, I’ve seen enough now to know that global warming is likely real. Am I willing to say without a doubt? No, I’m not. I’ve been too sure of many things and proved wrong. As I get older, I find I know much less. I’ve seen many jelly fish in December and I don’t think they should be here. I’m going by Jessie but she didn’t grow up in Cebu. Water temperatures in Leyte could be different but I doubt they are substanially different. The water seems warmer for some reason, I’m just not willing to jump to conclusions as to why. If you still totally dismiss global warming, I don’t think you’ve updated yourself on the information lately.
In any case, if you’re in Cebu you should prepare for a typhoon as it appears we have one headed for the peace loving people of Cebu.
Tagged with: Bogo City • Cebu • Cebu City • Expats • Monsoon • Philippines • Tacloban • Typhoon • Typhoon Frank
Filed under: Living in Cebu
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That doesn’t look good. Looks like it might affect the Cagayan De Oro area as well. Hoping for the best.
Yeah CDO will be impacted to some extent, I’m not sure how badly, they will get rain but I don’t think it will be bad there. The area in the circle on the borders Usually get minimal impact. This is only a cat 1 storm so it wont be strong far from the center. I wouldn’t be surprised if schools are closed and a signal one is issued if it stays on its current path. This thing seems to want to inch north though, maybe it will continue to do so.
Thank you for this information Rusty. I have my fiance living in Cebu. I’ve applied for her fiance visa and I’m just waiting on the paperwork. She lives in the area of Consolacion. If you can keep me abreast of the storm and if it hits Cebu hard … I would appreciate it.
Of course I will attempt to keep lines of communication open with her too but her internet is spotty even in good weather .. LOL
Good luck to you, Jessie and your family there!! I’ll be praying for you all!!
Jim
I could loose power completely. I did once today but it was brief. It happened when I was writing this article.
If it is a bad storm she and I will likely loose power for some period. Cell phones could also be down. I wouldn’t get to worried. I think that area is north of the flooding that Mandaue has been having. It is right next to Mandaue, can’t tell where one stops and where one stops. They have an old church there that I wanted to visit for years. I finally got to at the end of last year. Doesn’t seem that long ago!
The storm is something to take serious. Uring or Thelma was the name of the storm that caused over 5,000 deaths in Ormoc during 1991.
Jim, my wife has family in Consolacion. I was able to visit there for the first time during May 2010 and had a great time with her aunts, uncles and cousins. I had a great time talking to her favorite aunt (whose name that I just forgot). I think they will be safe there.
The storm has moved a bit north and from what I can tell has slowed a little. Slowing down is usually bad. It is now going to hit much closer to Bogo. They seem to be having more problems than usual on tracking this one though.
Right now in Bogo it is bright and sunny, hasn’t rained since I posted this article.
Now I know why it was bright and sunny this morning, the Tropical storm is now a tropical depression. It ran into some upper level winds that weakened the storm. It is expect to become a tropical storm when it hits the Philippines though. It could possibly return to Typhoon strength. It will probably be classified as a typhoon in the Philippines by PAGASA.
Looks like it’s gonna beat up on our place in Bohol… Hope not.
The storm has moved much further south since I posted that picture. It also weakened a great deal. It isn’t even raining in Bogo.
I see some clouds at noon. I think it should be here by now.
Here is another link for storms. I use it because I couldn’t find a better one.
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tc_up.html
Anyone with a better website?
PAGASA is okay but they classify a storm as a typhoon while everyone else treats it is a tropical storm. I usually look at it but got with Tropical Storm Risk. They send me alerts long before PAGASA even mentions the storm on their site. PAGASA doesn’t cover storms much until it is in their area of responsibility is why they are slower to start talking about them. But I do look at both. There is a link in the article for TSR. PAGASA is great for general weather info and TSR only covers tropical storms.
As of last night, this storm was to hit Palawan which is very rare, I think? As a tropical storm not a typhoon. It weakened yesterday.
The storm has moved very far south now. It will be a non event in Cebu. I’ll add a graphic in a couple of minutes.
Looks like this storm will hit somewhere between Bislig, Surigao del Sur and Davao Oriental. This is certainly new territory for us in the south as we never have such storms here. It is quite rainy today, just a bit windy. nothing too severe, though.
This thing is moving around like a pinball.
At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it hit Manila. 
Still no typhoon in Davao though. It reminds me of Fengshen though. That storm did the same thing then slammed into Cebu with very little warning. Mother nature can be fickle. 
For now it is mild storm but it seems to keep slowing down which can give it a chance to get worse.
First it kept going north, now it keeps moving south.
Dang it I need a bucket of Jollibee Chicken but its raining. Don’t think we ever tried delivery in Bogo, now my be a good time.
Been raining for the last two hours, well most of it. Not real hard but very steady and certainly not light.
Maps are hard to read but has this thing just stalled?
There are at least 180 people dead from this storm.
This is why you do not take a tropical storm lightly.
Bob Martin indicated he thought this would be a good site for donations.
Iligan and CDO where hit the hardest:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?hl=en_US&formkey=dDJOWDZ0ZWxoa1FFcS1nOVV2Y3ZsRlE6MQ#gid=0
Four videos of the Devestation
Please donate to Washi victims here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?hl=en_US&formkey=dDJOWDZ0ZWxoa1FFcS1nOVV2Y3ZsRlE6MQ#gid=0
I find it terribly sad and pathetic that so many men are deceived into marrying these gold digging, skanky LITTLE GIRLS who will do ANYTHING to get out of the ghetto slum that they live in.
My now EX husband was tricked into his midlife crisis by a 20 year old infant that not only cost him approx. $10K to “go visit” (IE:take for a test drive) but it also cost him his job, his best friend, his children and a wife that stood unflinchingly beside him through 25 years of marriage and defended him PRIOR to this occurring; I saw him humiliated and basically made a complete fool of. He cried and asked for forgiveness; but some things just CANNOT be forgiven. After HIS marriage was over…SHE married one of the SEVEN…count ‘em….SEVEN guys that she had come “visit” in a FOUR WEEK time period; guess what? He was fat, bald, old….and made good money…DING DING DING…we have a winner!!
Just because you receive attention from a much younger GIRL does NOT necessarily mean that it is a GOOD thing. Ask yourself….WHY is this little girl giving me all this attention and is willing to do whatever I ask? The answer, simply, is that she wants a meal ticket and a free ride out of the ghetto. She wants US (or wherever) citizenship. She wants OUT….she doesnt want YOU.
I know beyond a shadow of a doubt that I will be viciously attacked for speaking the truth that I know; and the biggest attacks will be made by the biggest fools. The ones that KNOW how much their little girlfriend “loves” them. Get back with me in about 5 years…..let me know how that all works out for ya.
I truly hope that I can spare ONE person the hell that I have lived over this. Good luck. You’re gonna need it.
You didn’t get attacked because you don’t have a clue what you’re talking about. No one feels the need to reply to this nonsense.
You really need to educate yourself some more and if you’re man comes back to you, spend sometime doing something other than telling him how stupid he is. That’s why he left.
Yea Sienna there are girls in the WORLD who will do ANYTHING to get out of the poverty trap they are in and but for an accident of birth it may have been you living a squalid life in a slum somewhere in the world instead of a “comfortable” existence in the developed world. This is not an attack on you but I would like to point out that there are two reasons that men appear to stray away from the marriage, 1 they are unhappy with the marriage for a multitude of reasons, normally because the wife is not supportive but there are others. 2 because they are stupid and in that case the wife is stupid for marrying him in the first place. Ask yourself which reason applies to you. I have travelled throughout the developing world and not as a tourist so I see the real people and not the cleaned up version that is presented to the tourists at the resorts. Until you have seen children and adults starving to death with runny sores all over their bodies you just don’t realize how SOME people have to live their lives. These same people are the ones that would share their last slice of bread with you which is something the people in the so called developed world would not likely do. I have made some lasting friendships in these countries and by and large all the people are beautiful on the inside. I read about the crime in the United States and how they treat their own people and I think WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE, ISN’T THE U.S.A SUPPOSED TO BE THE “RICHIST” COUNTRY IN THE WORLD AND ABLE TO LOOK AFTER THE PEOPLE. Developing countries cannot afford to look after the people so the people are left to look after themselves the best way they can. If you read Rusty’s blogs you will find that he warns against all the traps that can befall unsuspecting tourists in the Philippines but the same advice goes for EVERY country in the world. Maybe if you and your ex-husband had a better relationship you would be $10000 better off than you are now. Don’t blame the Filipino girls because they want a better life because isnt that what we all want. Please have a bit of compassion for people less fortunate than yourself.
Rusty,
I watched a video from a link on Facebook and had to stop watching it. Very sad. My asawa has 2 cousins that are safe in CDO. One cousin is a maid and the family of her employer is doing everything possible to help some of the survivors.
There is a lot of heart ache and pain there and will be for some time. Filipino don’t seem to dwell on things the way American’s do though, they seem to bounce back faster as a result. I wish I could learn that.