It has been almost a month since I wrote about the US dollar to Philippine peso rate of exchange.  At that time I predicted the dollar would fall in the short term due to a much larger improvement in jobs data out of the USA. That was an easy call and the dollar did fall against all major currencies for a week. Then the numbers became mixed for another week and then returned to its normal up and downward movements but barely trending upward against the Philippine peso.

US Dollar to Philippine Peso Back Over P44 to $1

US Dollar to Philippine PesoFor the last two days the US dollar to Philippines peso closed at or over the P44 to 1 level. As of 10pm on 01/10/2012 Philippines time it had slipped back to 43.9. The last two days saw a somewhat sharp increase in the value of the dollar. That was largely due to reports that exports in the Philippines had dropped. The report came out today and exports had in fact fallen by nearly 20% in November. However, today the USA is showing improving numbers especially in consumer confidence levels.

I enjoy watching Fox news as it provides much comic relief. If you follow it closely they actually get excited when the numbers are bad. When the economy shows better numbers there is a tone of disgust in their voices. It is obvious that most of the announcers on Fox News want things to be bad. I’ll let you figure out why. Or you can think I’m wrong if you like. I can deal with it.

US Dollar to Philippine Peso Movement is Unclear

I also see that stock futures overnight indicate that the US stock market is likely to open higher today. Also likely because of the improving numbers in the US economy. Things are getting better in the USA for now. The future? I don’t know. Some of the job numbers are clearly from the holidays and we will likely see some of that evaporate. However, this is the first year that the numbers were promising since the melt down in 2008. A drop in new unemployment claims has zero to do with more people dropping of the roles because they are not looking. Also job have been increasing. Yes, we still have lost more jobs than gained back, a lot more have been lost. The numbers are improving. The same thing that is playing a huge role in the dollar increasing though promises to deal it a heavy blow in the not too distant future.

That is of course the trouble in the Euro Zone. More and more people believe Greece will default and may even leave the EU. More and more economist are talking about the EU dissolving! Needless to say that would be a massive blow and probably wreak havoc on the US economy. So the USA is a long way out of the woods. However, it will likely hurt the Philippines even more than it will hurt the USA and push the US economy up. If it hurts the US economy that will send investors back to investing in the US dollar causing the dollars value to rise. The dollar is likely but not certainly probably going to continue it slow rise over 2012.

Remember though, when stocks are doing poorly, the dollar usually does well. At one point where this turns around and the dollar does worse, I’m not sure. At some point, a weaker US economy would cause the dollar to loose value or so one would think. This is a subject I will try to explore in the near future. I don’t know the answer to this and I would like to know what has happened historically. For now, the US dollar to Philippine peso rate continues to improve.`

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Filed under: Dollar To Philippine Peso

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