It has been almost a month since I wrote about the US dollar to Philippine peso rate of exchange. At that time I predicted the dollar would fall in the short term due to a much larger improvement in jobs data out of the USA. That was an easy call and the dollar did fall against all major currencies for a week. Then the numbers became mixed for another week and then returned to its normal up and downward movements but barely trending upward against the Philippine peso.
US Dollar to Philippine Peso Back Over P44 to $1
For the last two days the US dollar to Philippines peso closed at or over the P44 to 1 level. As of 10pm on 01/10/2012 Philippines time it had slipped back to 43.9. The last two days saw a somewhat sharp increase in the value of the dollar. That was largely due to reports that exports in the Philippines had dropped. The report came out today and exports had in fact fallen by nearly 20% in November. However, today the USA is showing improving numbers especially in consumer confidence levels.
I enjoy watching Fox news as it provides much comic relief. If you follow it closely they actually get excited when the numbers are bad. When the economy shows better numbers there is a tone of disgust in their voices. It is obvious that most of the announcers on Fox News want things to be bad. I’ll let you figure out why. Or you can think I’m wrong if you like. I can deal with it.
US Dollar to Philippine Peso Movement is Unclear
I also see that stock futures overnight indicate that the US stock market is likely to open higher today. Also likely because of the improving numbers in the US economy. Things are getting better in the USA for now. The future? I don’t know. Some of the job numbers are clearly from the holidays and we will likely see some of that evaporate. However, this is the first year that the numbers were promising since the melt down in 2008. A drop in new unemployment claims has zero to do with more people dropping of the roles because they are not looking. Also job have been increasing. Yes, we still have lost more jobs than gained back, a lot more have been lost. The numbers are improving. The same thing that is playing a huge role in the dollar increasing though promises to deal it a heavy blow in the not too distant future.
That is of course the trouble in the Euro Zone. More and more people believe Greece will default and may even leave the EU. More and more economist are talking about the EU dissolving! Needless to say that would be a massive blow and probably wreak havoc on the US economy. So the USA is a long way out of the woods. However, it will likely hurt the Philippines even more than it will hurt the USA and push the US economy up. If it hurts the US economy that will send investors back to investing in the US dollar causing the dollars value to rise. The dollar is likely but not certainly probably going to continue it slow rise over 2012.
Remember though, when stocks are doing poorly, the dollar usually does well. At one point where this turns around and the dollar does worse, I’m not sure. At some point, a weaker US economy would cause the dollar to loose value or so one would think. This is a subject I will try to explore in the near future. I don’t know the answer to this and I would like to know what has happened historically. For now, the US dollar to Philippine peso rate continues to improve.`
Tagged with: Dollar To Philippine Peso • Exchange Rate • Philippines
Filed under: Dollar To Philippine Peso
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Rusty. This is a very informative article. I have been watching the Euro – Dollar exchange rates. It seems that when the Dollar gains strength against the Euro, the Dollar gains strength against other currencies. One euro is currently trading under $1.28 dollars. It’s interesting to see how low the value of the Euro might drop and if it will have an impact on the Dollar value to the Peso.
CNN Money just posted an article about the topic. It’s another interesting read.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/01/10/how-low-will-the-euro-go/?iid=HP_LN
Philippine exports are down. Europe is entering a recession. I’m wondering if the export decline is directly related to Europe.
Yes it is related, problems in the euro are driving peso own and the dollar up
Nothing to worry about the Euro or the American dollar for the next 4 to 5 years or 2016/2017.
However, the S.H.T.F. afterwords,… BIG TIME!
Hi Rusty,
A brief comment.
Since the Philippines exports people it has basically created it’s own foreign exchange out of need, as the Peso is a ill-liquid product. By exporting people, it is a slick way to accumulate dollars without the foreign exchange concerns. When dollars are sent back to relatives and converted, all funds are trapped in a non-circular system adding to the stalemate of the currency.
If one considers the in-house stalemate of the Peso, it has left itself at the mercy of outside forces which can destroy a currency. It mimics the move of the Euro, but is tied to the dollar. There was a platform of currency protection when the American government had bases there but since departure we have no financial reason to protect the Peso anymore and we won’t. So the Peso is basically at the will of the Euro which in the end could devastate the Peso. But for now the Euro will be turbulent but not destroyed and the Peso will have no choice but to enjoy the roller coaster ride,
Just a thought
Jim
I don’t understand this Jim. I do understand that with the Euro hurting and the countries there looking at slow economic growth, the fundamentals in the Philippines are hurt.
Now I didn’t consider the OFWs before in that but they will be sending less money home. Perhaps that is what you’re speaking of. I THINK mostly the peso has been hurt because with slower growth in the Euro Zone, there will be fewer exports to that area from the Philippines and fewer businesses expanding here. No?
Hello Rusty,
The main problem with the peso is the liquidity. I can trade the peso in my trading account (most traders can’t) but there is no liquidity in it so it doesn’t behoove me to hold the currency at any price if I can’t move it. It has no value to me. That is a strong indication that the currency is basically used only inside the country. Which means the government is using dollars to pay their bills.
If the flow of dollars drops (exports/remittance) and lets say we have a spike in oil prices (which by the way is coming) the Philippines stand no chance since oil is priced in dollars and the government pays their bills in dollars. The price of their currency will collapse to dreaded numbers and there will be no support for it because it’s not liquid, nor possess any political will (USA) to lend support. (It’s called pay back!)
They will have to borrow money at interest rates similar to Greece and will wish they hadn’t run all the dollar business out of Angeles City!
Since I deal mainly in dollars, I simply look for places that my dollar gets the most value for. The Philippines in the future looks very good for that bet. There is probably a real estate bubble forming, topped off by a corrupt government, a ill-liquid currency and perhaps an Iranian crisis brewing. It is a recipe for disaster. And there is nothing they can do to stop it. Dollars will be gold, Americans will be welcomed, immigration rules will ease and condos will be given away. I am buying my plane ticket as I write! LOL
Hi Rusty,
The closure of the bases in the Philippines are quietly changing the financial landscape of the Philippines. One may argue, perhaps with good reason, that the closures were good for the Philippine people. But the underlying current is laying the ground work for a wild roller coaster ride for the Philippines. What was once considered irreplaceable strategic soil for the U.S. is now being relocated to other Asian countries and U.S. territories.
In short, the United States government and the American people are moving on. New partners, strategic interests and alliances are being created that have nothing to do with the Philippines. While the U.S. is simply moving on, it is not as easy for the Philippines to do so. They are still dependent on the U.S. for foreign aid, military assistance and humanitarian aid. The request for assistance is being met at the front door with less enthusiasm in the U.S. Out of sight-out of mind, rings a bell.
As a currency analyst, putting sentimental feelings aside and protecting financial interests, the Philippines is in a tough position. A potential real estate bubble. A potential oil spike. A corrupt government. An ill-liquid currency. A dependency on a maternal grandmother who has moved on. It all points towards a rocky boat. And it won’t take much to turn it on its side.
It is similar to the recent flood tragedies in the south of the Philippines. In the past, there would have been a U.S. aircraft carrier offshore providing immediate assistance. That didn’t happen. They had all moved on. I am afraid the U.S.government, the American people and the financial train have left the station. And I don’t think it is coming back.
The Peso with little defense and a lot on dependence, could be in for a wild ride and as I said before, there is nothing they can do to stop it. My comments while perhaps blunt but no less true is presented as a scenario for your readers to consider as they move to the Philippines. This scenario would create great opportunities for the prepared. It will also create great hardship for those who aren’t.
Just a thought,
Jim
But Jim, haven't you heard? The "profits" of doom have been making big money selling their eBooks and newsletters telling everyone that the dollar is dead, its all over and the USA will soon be history.
No, I don't buy that either.
The reason the peso is not liquid is because it is illegal to export or import more than P10,000 into or out of the country. I've been trying to figure out what that is. I came up with a reason but now it escapes me. Somone was posting here not long ago all mad because they couldn't convert it in the USA in a bank and the black market in the USA pays less than banks. Sounds like he'd been better of just paying his taxes.
I have assumed this is why most investors can't trade in the peso too.
Many large Filipino businesses have been complaining about the weak dollar as much of their sales occurs in dollars. With the dollar being weak their revenues converted to pesos are down and of course their income is down and their balance sheets weaker.
I like your outlok on the dollar better than the "profits" of doom. There's a lot of people here buying into that crap. People have been saying the crap since I was 15 years old. I'm sure they were saying it before then, that's just when I started paying attention.
Jim, the latest word is that Obama has stopped the expansion in Guam and now desires to expand in the Philippines instead. I don't see the Philippines being open to that. Under the current constitution, I don't think it is even possible. I don't know how accurate those reports were though. The Spratly Island though have a potential battle growing with China and several others. The USA has said it will defend the Philippines claim to them. That does seem to be laying the ground work for a base. Most of those island are underwater much of the time. That would make it hard to build a base on those. will be interesting to see how it plays out.
I would think China is about to start WW3.
Rusty: I hope they don't… I don't think the RP gov't will allow it. My gut tells me that would inflame the situation rather than calm it, and I don't think that most Filipinos want more US troops here
John Miele I think that you are right. It is going to take some major arm twisting to make that happen. Either the promise of more money or the threat of less money. It would likely raise tensions around. I tend to agree with you. Both inside the Philippines and outside.
Some are tying it to the upcoming war with Iran but I just don't see the connection. According to Fox News Iran is working on a missile capable of hitting the USA. I didn't listen close to that so I have no idea if it is accurate. But if they have one, they could also hit the Philippines. A base would make them more likely to do so.
Iran was involved in 9/11. We know this. If they really are claiming they have a missile or almost have a missile that can strike the USA that is a clear threat.
Matthew Illian It may have already started Matthew with Iran. Unless we are going to stand by and let Iran blow Israel off the face of the earth, we must strike Iran.
Rusty,
Russia, Iran, China are always looking for a reason to blow Isreal off the map. With the current President I can see that happening. I mean his lack of balls for war. We have always been Isreal’s friend but Obummer doesn’t think we should be.
I don’t think it is going to happen right away. However, The above mentioned 3 countries I think will start ww3.
Hi Rusty,
The concept of a base(s) returning to the Philippines is like trying to turn a aircraft carrier on a dime. (It ain’t gonna happen). For several reasons. The Ship is heading in another direction. Even if it’s needed it won’t return. The Philippines have made their decision. Some may argue the decision both pro and con. But the point remains the decision to not to renew has been made. We will always have military in the Philippines as we currently do and the Philippines and the U.S. will always circumvent the Philippine constitution to allow it. (As we currently do). But the ship has left the port and there is no return. (General Mac must be turning over in his grave!)
The Philippine exports have always been tied to new treaty agreements the US entered into with with friends and foe alike. The treaties were negotiated and the Philippines were attached as a rider to improve their exports. It was cheaper than funding them direct. That game is coming to an end or at least a major slowdown.
With the bases being located outside the Philippines through new trade agreements,(with friends and foe alike) the Philippines are not attached to those new treaties as before. Refer to my (“Out of sight, out of mind”) comment above. That leaves them to open markets, and develop foreign exchange markets on their own. The government is not designed to do that without a complete overhaul. (Which ain’t gonna happen)
Just as an aircraft carrier takes a long time to turn, so did the effects of not renewing the bases. We are just now starting to see the coming fallout of financial changes in store for the Philippines. There are currently two systems of financial endeavors in the Philippines. Government and underground monies. Both illegal and corrupt. One adapts with change, the other with force. Neither can compete in global markets. Only in-house markets.
I love the people, but as a currency analyst I have to take a blunt view of how things are, both on the financial surface and the under current of the country, and there could be a very dangerous undertow in their financial future. I was working with the Senate Committees in Wash D.C. when the base leases expired. There was a lot of resentment when the military was booted and that resentment still lingers on. In trade agreements, foreign exchange, immigration policies, academic exchanges, humanitarian/relief assistance, foreign aid and more. Washington does not play by fair rules, but they play by even worse ones when jolted. And their jolted memories linger on and on and on and on and…………
Just a thought
Jim
Hi Rusty,
A further comment.
The footprint of America is leaving the Philippines. It is only going to be replaced by other footprints. Koreans and Chinese come to the forefront. This departed footprint now allows for easier encroachment of Philippine resources both on and offshore. It will create a demand for military expenditures to protect these sovereign issues the likes of which the Philippines have not had to endure in the past. They will either fight the encroachment or they will embrace it through bribes and more corruption.
In the U.S. we have a saying. So goes California, so goes the country. In the Philippines, so goes Angeles City so goes the Philippines. The English speaking communities are simply going wayside of the Asian based languages, corruption, bribes and mafia style methods of far east business practices. They are slowing being embraced.
The encroachment has already started. In business, political bribes, Asian only clubs, Chinese warships in Philippine waters, radicals, murders, inflation, loss of natural resources and the non-assimilation of these new invaders. Immigration travel has opened up, not in America, but in Asia to import cheap Philippine labor. The exchange in return for all this cheap exported and sometimes abused Philippine worker? Badly needed Foreign exchange and the recognition of their academic degrees. Nothing more/nothing less!
No, the footprint has left. But there is a new footprint silently moving inland. It is brutal, it is destructive, it is corrupt by its very history and it is self indulging. And in its wake when all is done, “there is nothing”. No foreign exchange, no academic recognition, no smiling faces, “nothing”. I would have hoped better for the people of the Philippines. But the ship has left and the tide is turning.
Just a thought,
Jim
WOW RUSTY!!!
GREAT CHANGE… A POSITIVE ONE. FINALLY A WEBSITE WHERE THE DEBATE ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND POLITICS IS PERMITTED.
THIS IS WHY I STOPPED POSTING ON BOB”s WEBSITE (Bob from Mindanao), SIMPLY BECAUSE OF LACK OF THIS KIND OF OPEN DEBATE.
THIS KIND OF DEBATE IS “DISCOURAGED” ON HIS WEBSITE.
I BELIEVE THAT YOU SEE A TREMENDOUS JUMP IN REPLIES ON YOUR WEBSITE AS WELL.
Hi Bob/Rusty
Yes, even though I am a new comer, I agree with you Bob. (Even though you don’t like my little foam house! BIG LOL)
Thanks
Jim
Bob doesn’t like politics on his site. I can understand that. It tends to lead to some very stupid things being said. I like politics but I want it to stay tied to the Philippines. That can be problematic. If it drifts off to far, it belongs in the forum. The economy issues are quite closely tied to the Philippines. That’s all i ask that it be targeted on the Philippines.
Bob has a lot of people leaving comments and is a friend of mine. I wish I had as many people leaving comments. He just knocked me off one of my number one Google rankings too. Now friend or not, I can’t have that. LOL
It isn’t a huge deal, not a lot of traffic comes from it but nearly every Philippines expat site goes for that keyword hard. The change I made to the sites name likely caused that but it is okay. I made it because I see another search term that is more appealing but much harder to rank for.
Yeah, I got scolded there too about politics. Hey its his site and he’s doing well with it his way. I even told him once, sometimes when doing things on my site, I ask “What would Bob do?” He’s going to get the big head. Like I said, it is his site, he should run it they way he wants too.
I use to put up with attacks on me. I don’t any more because it seems to be contagious. Also people that do that tend to attack others. Also, most of the attacks come from people that have no clue what they are talking about. One came from a preacher after he searched for “sexy pics of teens in the Philippines.”
Seems a lot of people want to see me fail. Oh well, I fail at things all the time.
Jim,
I do like your foam house but Philippinos do not need it here. The nipa is a wonderful naturally cooling material.
Actually a 100% concrete house is not even desirable. However if you must have a concrete house in tropics, the general rule is this; a concrete house must have an 8′ wide porch all around in order to keep the house cool.
Hi Bob,
Hmmm I thought the circular porch was for chicken fights and BBQ’s. lol. Thanks for the preferred construction info though. Although it has been many years since I have been to the Philippines for an extended amount of time I look forward to my return trip.
I hope to avoid Manila as a new home and prefer to stay in Cebu but as you have indicated one must put his boots on the ground to find out. I have a lot of friends in the Philippines and many who have been there for many years. I was an investor in the Clark area years ago but lost my investments due to my partners divorce. She took everything from him and mine too! LOL, but that has been many years ago.
All told I probably have over 100 people there I personally know over the years mostly from the military, some from business. Some us them stayed and some us left. I always said I would probably go back someday to live. That someday is coming around pretty soon I believe.
I have lived all over the world but would like to hang around Asia for a while. Travel, perhaps a little business. I am glad to have read Rusty’s site and I agree with you he will probably increase his traffic. I find the others sites lack the blunt honesty it takes to live there and the surrounding areas.
People don’t engage in these types of sites to be sugar coated. We need blunt honest opinions from boots on the ground. Information is the lifeline of relocation-good or bad-but honest. I have found that to be true on Rusty’s site and with his engaging readers.
Ok, how bout this, I have a knew idea about a new type of house……….lol
Thanks
Jim
Hi Rusty
Not to contradict you but to prove you that your view of US dollar is completely flawed.
If there is one, JUST ONE, web page you should have a good look at, is this one.
LINK
The numbers in $USD are absolutely astounding and impossible to pay back, ever!
THERE IS NO WAY IN THE WORLD TO AVOID DEFAULT, IMPOSSIBLE !!!!
Now the only question remaining is when?
My technical analysis suggests year 2036. That will be last year that $USD will be used as money. After that date, all fiat currencies in the world become worthless.
However I do expect trouble,… BIG TROUBLE, as of 2016.
If anyone is interested about how and why I believe this will happen, please write to flemingrobert@hotmail.com and I will send you my personal analysis on the situation.
It is a 12 pages document.
Hello Rusty and readers,
I have liquidated my dollar /yen position. Made a nice 53 pip move. I turned around and sold the dollar/yen and find myself range bound. I don’t think I am in trouble but perhaps sold a little too soon and should have sold at a little better price. Oh well.
I have taken a look at the peso and find the latest move interesting. There was a knee jerk reaction for the Peso when the US employ numbers came out. I would think when the numbers are adjusted for seasonal (holiday) workers those numbers are not going to be so good and the Peso will have another knee jerk reaction.
Even though the peso is in stronger position I believe it has to revert back to a weaker position later this year. Perhaps as low as 48-53 dollar/peso. There are still tensions with China even though it hasn’t affected trade between the parties, yet it is still not good for the Peso. Also I find the stimulus that has been injected by the Phil Govt. seems not to be working due to external economic pressures. Commodity prices are climbing, the loom of an Iranian blockade still overhangs which puts the Peso in a defensive position.
It may be a good time to short the Peso on the next strong move. If it reaches a 38-39 range I think I am going to sale the Peso and see if I can’t catch the move to the high 40′s. It would be a nice payday on that move. If I am correct it would be a welcome move for you that live there. So hang on to your dollars you may get a bonus this year!
Jim, you’re post are very helpful. Please keep them coming. Some complain about my writing about the dollar exchange rate. However, there is a lot of silent interest in it. I know because many people come to this site after looking for that kind of info.
The peso is getting weaker but the dollar may get weaker too. That interest rate cut by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas signals slower growth is expected by the central bank. That seems reasonable with the Euro zone in a recession or near recession.
You know if job number are up against next month in the USA, it is going to be hard for people to continue to say that the USA is about to fall apart. Much of that talk will also end once a white man is back in office. I wonder how many people are going to take that statement the wrong way.
Plenty!
Jim
Enjoy it Jim while it lasts.
Here nobody is an active trader, therefore you will not find anyone really interested but I do understand your enthusiasm.
I do follow the dollar for a very different reason though.
Here is why.
Bob, you are underestimating Jim. He is a professional trader and he does very well at it.
You’ve been reading too much of the profits of doom crap too. 
I personally pay close attention to what he says about the forex. This is what he does for a living.
Hi Rusty,
I would like to give you some “food for thought” on trading.
I live in Arizona where we have excellent Indian casinos. I really like playing Texas holdem and I’m a frequent player. One night I was playing and the pot I was in was getting fairly large. Even though I had what I thought was a winning hand, there was enough action on the table that I simply laid back and was able to bet without raising any eyebrows to my hand.
Well a long story short, I eventually won this large pot. As the dealer was pushing the pot my way he sarcastically said, Sir, you sure played that hand wrong. I simply looked up at him and asked, Dealer, how much money did you win out of that pot? Then I immediately followed up with, Son, if you knew what I knew you wouldn’t be dealing, you would be over here playing cards!
The same applies with trading. You will find everybody is an analyst, commentator and expert. You will find none of them willing to play the game with their own money. I know many arm chair analysts that talk a good game but don’t have enough nerve to pull the trigger!
In short I don’t listen to them. It’s easy to sit on the sidelines and be an expert. But to play, Ah, that takes fortitude, dedication and an expertise that no armchair analyst will ever know. The “Doomsayers” and “Chicken Little’s” are a dime a dozen in this business, but none sat at the table where the money is at. To arrive at one’s own conclusions and go out in this risk/reward world, and test their validity, is the true analyst. All other is simply noise.
just a thought,
Jim
Jim, I prefer to call them “profits (prophets) of doom” because most of them are making huge money doing it. They sell news letters at high rates. The probably pay someone to write those for them. I listen, then I check to see what they are selling and find they just might have an agenda.
I listen, research when I’m unsure and learn a lot more by doing it. i still have much to learn and I’m still an arm chair analyst myself. 
I may have to stay that way until I get the internet business built up some more. Earning five grand a month is within my grasp. Though this month, I might have a loss. If so, it will be the first one in a long time.
Rusty
I used to be an active stock trader for ten years and I do understand Jim. Believe me I DO UNDERSTAND HIM VERY WELL and I do not under-estimate him.
The reason why I do not trade any more is exactly because of what I am showing on the chart in the above post.
That is also the reason why I am here and not in Canada anymore. I simply do not believe that money as we know it will be around for much longer. Mind you, I am 64 and will certainly kick-the-can before 2036, however if you are in your 40′s or younger, you may be not be so lucky.
BTW do you know what is the latest real estate trend?
Buying farms and it is certainly not because of farming.
Read between the lines:
Hello Gang,
I would like to make a quick comment on my dollar/yen position. And that is I am down about 10 pips (ticks) which is quiet a move against me. If I get to the 12-14 ticks down I am going to have to liquidate the position and take the loss. I just looked at the screen and I am only down 6 ticks as I write so maybe I am going to be alright. I will know in the next few seconds.
I am not sure of my posts to help anyone out there. I am simply sharing what I am do and some thoughts for you that may have an interest. If I am out of place I apologize and will cease.
It really doesn’t matter if you travel, live or want to live offshore you are faced with foreign exchange and its effects on your budgets. I thought by sharing perhaps it will give the novice a chance to understand the movements from a trader.
I am now down about 7.5 ticks but seem to be steady I think it might hold but I may be lucky to get out of this trade with a little loss. I have made a bad call it looks like. I will let you know.
Give me your comments if any, I welcome them.
Thanks
Jim
keep them coming Jim, I don’t always reply as sometimes I’m pushed for time. Your post do help, If you ever wish to be a guest blogger, let me know.
Bob you've posted that chart before and quite frankly the chart is meaningless. It proves nothing. According to the profits of doom, the USA should have split up last year. Russian experts were predicting it too. Contradict all you like it is okay with me if you're totally wrong.
Hello Rusty,
I can sympathize with Bob’s thoughts. I too am disturbed about the position of global economics and it’s effect on all of us. But it is literally impossible to have a default of the dollar when we can simply print more money. Inflation and deflation brings up an entirely different problem. But the US dollar is not going anywhere in my lifetime. There is simply nothing to replace it at the current state of trade. That’s not to say it won’t change in the future but for now it is business as usual.
Oh, there will continue to be conspiracy theories about how things are manipulated, or how the elites are trying to create a one world currency, which by the way we have several already in existence and have for some time.
The Kennedy assassination and 9/11 changed the way the world operates. One took our naiveness and the other is taking our liberties. We managed to work thru the first one and we our currently trying to work thru this one. But it is aggravating, confusing and disruptive to all of our lives.
But in all fairness we are trying to find our way thru this new high-tech way of life. It’s intrusions, it’s place in the world, it’s good usage and bad ones. I grew up on an Indian reservation and in a Indian boarding school. I now move currencies at the speed of light. Who would have ever thought. I found my spot in life, so will others. It was not without trial and error but I muddled thru it till I figured it out. So will the world.
I know a guy who used to work for the IRS and retired. Now he lives in the jungle with a laptop and communicates with the world. Who would have ever thought! LOL But he figured it out and so will the others. No I agree it is easy to be dishearten about the way the world function at present. But to throw one’s hands up and cuss is entirely different, then to throw one’s hands up and give up.
No, the young ones to follow will certainly have a changed world. They will most likely be a global citizen, communicate in all languages and move money around represented by blips and dots on a screen, just like the guy I know in the jungle with a laptop and a fellow from an Indian reservation. I envy everyone of them.
By the way my dollar /yen move is now only 3 ticks down and moving towards a profitable position. I might live another day! I am now 2 ticks profitable and gaining. Perhaps my call was right on the money after all. And my doctor wondered why I needed a triple by-pass! LOL
Just a thought,
jim
P.S. I just liquidated my trade for a 8 tick profit, I am going to bed to fight another day. Good night all!
just a thought
Jim
No problem Rusty, I am easy going.
We are not there YET. So no problem for most of us.
The FED will make plenty of noise when TIME comes. I read somewhere that they intend to kick-the-can all the way to 25 trillions of US National Debt. Right now we are at 15 trillions!
However, make no mistake, eventually the day of reckoning will come.
In the mean time have a Taco with a San Miguel Beer. Don’t forget the lime!
haha, I didn’t expect you to agree with me.
Hi Rusty and readers,
I hope everything is getting better there. The news is saying 44 dead, I hope they are wrong. It is about 11 Am in Arizona. I have checked the Dollar/yen movement after the quake. There seems to be not a lot of movement in the trade. The yen topped out at about 76.71 then reverted back to the 76.50 range.
For those who are following you know I was in trouble for a while in yesterday’s position. I was down a substantial amount but hung on to the trade and it did revert back to my side. I was able to eek out a small profit but it got my heart rate up before I could liquidate my position.
I have a buy order set in at the 76.30 area. I don’t think I can get a fill at that price but in case there is a spike in the downside I might be able to get filled. It is a safe purchase at that area. Nothing big but could make good money if the order fills at that price.
You have to be careful of the upside ticks on the dollar/yen trade. The Japanese can’t afford the yen to gain much more ground. It is killing their exports. It also is going to affect the importation price of cars to the Philippines. so for those interested in the purchase of a auto in the Philippines be careful of the exchange rates. The prices could get better if the Japanese decide to intervene on their currency. It would save you a lot of money if you would wait out the movement.
Anything below 76.0 on the Yen is intervention territory. So keep it simple. If you see the yen move to the 76.0 area and below you might see intervention and the dollar could move as high as 2-300 ticks, which would give you a retirement nest egg in about 5 minutes/ha and a cheaper car.
Just a thought,
Jim
Its confusing for some of us when you say “anything below 76.0″ because you talk of the yen rising.
For those that are not use to thinking in currency pairs what that means is the dollar is getting below 76. I think? 
A lot of people get confused about the exchange. They will say the peso is down when they really mean they are getting less money for their dollars. Of course they are getting less money because the peso is up. I see that confusion a lot. It is reassuring to know I’m not the only one with inverted thinking. LOL
BTW, these days I usually reply via the FaceBook comments. Even when I do, it is suppose to also show up down here. A few times it didn’t though.
I think I should write a story about the FB comments to help people understand. I’d really like to get rid of the old way. It helps increase traffic to the site if the comments are also posted on Facebook AND it keeps down spam. People USUALLY don’t spam with a valid email. Well, mass spammers do as they have bots that create their email accounts too. And the bots even go in and confirm the email address.
Also when I use the FB system, the comments don’t show up in the recent comments widget in the sidebar. I hate that.
Hi Rusty,
When you talk about facebook and bots and increasing traffic and all the other tech stuff I am lost worse than you are with FX explanations!LOL Like I said before, I understand what to do with information but I don’t know any thing about computers. lol
Yes, the explanation of forex moves are quite confusing to the novice. Up/down, who’s on second./ha I will try to take time and explain some of it as I go next time for those who are interested. I remember when I started, I thought they were all crazy. Nothing made sense. Everything seemed backwards.
It was like the old guy on the He haw show. Well that’s good right? Noooo, that’s bad, well then that’s bad, Noooo, that’s good. That’s the way trading is./ha
Thanks
Jim
Hi Rusty,
Are you losing a lot of comments by them not being accepted by the captcha code? I write and submit but the captcha code denies it. I don’t mind but when returning to the page it clears all that was written. Is there a problem are is it me? Anybody else having this problem?
Thanks
Jim
Captcha avoidance is possible.
That’s not good Jim, you shouldn’t be loosing your comments. I’ve turned it off for now. However, there are two ways to avoid the captcha should I turn it back on. I’m going to look for a different one that doesn’t cause you to loose your comment.
Look here to see how to avoid the captcha
Hi Gang,
I thought I would submit the following for your consideration and comments.
I feel that the summary could affect us all in and out of the Philippines. As always I suggest you check with our boots on the ground expert “Rusty” regarding how they may affect those that are there and those of us that are relocating there.
The South China Sea territorial dispute remains a factor in China/Philippine bilateral relationships.
Both China/Philippines are using the ASEAN as a means to improve and engage discussions on bilateral relations.
The Philippines have expressed their commitment for the “One China” policy. This commitment raises questions regarding the Taiwan/Philippine relationship.
Using the war on terrorism as the base for allowing US military on Philippine soil sends a message that the Philippines are concerned about a China encroachment.
The Philippines have forged a economic policy with China and a military policy with America. This sandwich policy between the two world powers places the Philippines in a precarious position.
On the surface the sandwich policy of economic growth with China and a military protection agreement with America does not sound any alarms. However , when the Taiwan factor is tossed in, it places the Philippines in a very dangerous game. The U.S. has military protection agreements with both Taiwan and the Philippines. The Philippines playing both sides of the coin may find itself in an unwanted position.
If the protection of Taiwan ever arose the Philippines would have to choose between economic cooperation with China or the military protection of America. However, the real danger is the lost faith of the American people. The Philippines may very well be placing itself in the cross hairs of a unwanted public debate.
With the American public in an uproar regarding deficit spending and our foreign aid policies, coupled with a looming elections and the Philippines playing both sides of the coin between the two super powers it may just find it self with a loss of public sentiment. It could have very grave humanitarian/foreign aid consequences that could change the Philippines forever.
When I worked in Washington D.C. there was great resentment about the loss of the Philippine bases. Those sentiments still quietly exist. Toss in a sandwich policy as described above and it really is asking to revive those old feelings. Caution is needed. The Philippines would not be advised to lose the faith of the American people. It could be a very defeating policy and one that I would not want to see. I welcome your comments.
Thanks
Jim/injun1
Jim
I don’t trade anymore. Ten years was enough for me. I am glad I didn’t develop a heart problem. I was trading for living and that is not usually recommended because the stress can be unbearable.
I know at least one guy who almost died from a heart attack in 2008 downturn. He was one of those who believed in the FED intervening to stop the bleeding smack in the middle of the 2008 carnage. At least I got out of that mess right on time because of my conviction that the existence of the FED is based on fraud.
Forex trading is OK but you must not trade for living. If that is your case then you’ll have great time ahead because soon it will be much easier to predict the future trends… By the end of 2014 (or perhaps sooner) they intend to start raising interest rates and that will put an end to dollar’s present ascension and will wipe-off the middle class.
Hi Bob,
Yeah it is a tough time for most. I have been trading for over 20 years now. Everything from being a portfolio manager for a public commodity fund to a Fund Manager for a currency fund. I got my start as a real estate analyst and later as a Director of real estate for a major Indian tribe. It has been a whirlwind tour./Ha!
I had heart surgery about a year ago (a triple by-pass) not connected to trading but lifestyle. Most Indians are diabetics and I am too, then old age set in!/ha I am starting to get around a little better and since I am a independent trader it didn’t prevent me from working. But I still don’t recommend the surgery. Avoid it at all cost, I tell the young ones.
No, I trade for a living, I always have. I always will. I have been thinking about retiring but I won’t be able to stop trading. When I travel I just take my laptops with me and trade where ever I end up at. I traded out of Manila for a while several years ago. I enjoyed it but look forward to trading and traveling out of Cebu.
I tried semi-retiring in Chang Mai a few years back. The natives thought I was crazy when I begin installing internet connections to my hut in the middle of nowhere/LOL. I tried to take it easy but it’s not in my blood, I have to keep moving. So I went to Europe for a while then came back to the States. As soon as I am healed up enough I am coming back to the Philippines. I may stay there for good this time.
Yes, the feds are up to it, to their eyeballs aren’t they! Uncle Ben is just driving everything in the ground. But then again so is the rest of the world. We just keep printing money and printing money and more printing! But it will come to an end and it will be a chilly morning for the ones who aren’t prepared. We are going to have to pay the piper and it will happen sooner than later!
Nice talking with you,
Jim
Hi Rusty,
A simple update, I hung around the news room trying to see if the quake was going to move around the circle but didn’t. I was skeptical of entering the Asian forex markets till I was sure there wasn’t going to be a fallout of aftershocks.
The dollar/yen had a few spikes but overall stayed range bound around the 76.50 area. However it spiked a few minutes ago to over 76.60, I couldn’t stand it anymore and sold the dollar/yen at 76.59. It is currently sitting at 76.58 making me even on the trade. I expect to see a 12-20 pt move in profit off this position.
I have checked the Peso most of the day, particularly after the quake. I was surprised of the stability out of the Manila traders. They kept a pretty cool head doing the news and maintained a needed stability. It was good news for the Philippine markets. Hopefully that will be the end of the quakes.
The dollar/yen just moved against me but I think that was to be expected. I still believe that the dollar/yen will spike downward. I should be able to catch a small but profitable trade.
Well I hope everyone we know is Ok after today and things get back to normal in the Cebu area. I finally figured out how to correct my posting errors. I’m lost when it comes to operating a computer. I simply know what to do with information that comes across it, but I am lost when operating it. lol
Thanks
Jim
When you say the dollar/yen will spike downward, you mean you think the dollar will go down against the yen?
Hi Rusty,
Yes that is correct. I thought the dollar would go down temporarily against the Yen. It never really did. There was a lot of chatter and jaw boning about intervention and the dollar took off in an upward move. In fact it is about 9 am in Az and it spiked to the upside about in the 76.95 area. It now sits in the low 76.80′s.
My stop losses were hit last night and I took a loss of about 15 ticks. In trading terms, it means I woke up broke! lol. It’s funny I never felt a thing while sleeping, lol!
What I warned your readers about is what happened last night. I didn’t follow my own advise, except I placed a stop loss position to protect me and it was hit.
They are hunting for Wabbits, so be very, very quiet! Ha!
Thanks
Jim
Jim
Palawan is my home now but as you know, Spratlys are part of Palawan. Therefore soon I will be smack in the center of the coming war. Actually I will be sitting in the front row.
Why am I so sure?
Presently there is a tremendous hotel building boom in Puerto Princessa City, clearly indicating that it is NOT intended for tourists, there is simply not enough of those coming here to fill all the empty rooms.
The other day I had to overnight in PPC and went around and checked the number of rooms with lights-ON. It was roughly 20% occupancy rate! Say 40% if you want to generously erase the margin of error.
Now consider this: any hotel in operation is expected to have a minimum of 70% occupancy rate to be profitable. This tells me that a few well informed peoples know that something BIG is coming in the area!
The only thing that is still unknown to everybody is WHEN?
Hi Bob,
Interesting. I am not familiar with your home area all that much except some of the history. I often wondered what brought people there. Your comments would bring one to question all the new construction with no new tourism?
It goes back to the old trading theory, follow the trail of money and you will find the reason. I submitted a scenario for comment yesterday regarding the position of a sandwich policy. Your observations may fall into that area. They (whoever they are)would need housing for new oil exploration to military operations, who knows, but it does send up a curious flag doesn’t it?
Like I said and you being an old stock trader, follow the money and you most likely will find the answer of who “they” are and what “they” are up to. God forbid it may simply be another Asian with a ton of money. All of what you are describing happened in the islands just south of Manila.
The Asian money quietly came in and developed hotels that are still standing like ghost towns today. It’s in their blood as I had written in an earlier piece. They will go where there is no permits needed and try to quietly build without notice some even to circumvent gambling laws. It’s just their method of doing business. I saw this illegal style of business model operate in several other countries like that.
On the other hand, they have a unique ability to attract their own clients. Their own people. That is how the Angeles city area is succumbing to change. These basically private clubs are being developed with no intentions of serving outsiders. They have no intention of assimilation with the Philippine people, outside of cheap labor.
The price of real estate is inflating and so are the tempers, corruption and bribes. Perhaps that is what you see being built. Like I said, follow the money and you will find the answer. Good luck.
Just a thought,
Jim
Jim, Yeah I'm not surprised the quake didn't affect the peso forex too much. There are likely three reasons. Filipino are use to dealing with adversity and it all but runs off their back. Second, news coming out of Negros Oriental has been slow. People didn't really know how bad it was and once they did, it trickled in so that reduced the shock. Third, Manila is kind of in its own world. There is Manila and then everything else, including Cebu is out in the provinces and insignificant. At least that's the impression I have.
Don't beat me Manillians? What the heck do you call people that live in Manila. 
Hi Rusty,
A great surmise of the situation. I too was surprised there was not knee jerk reaction but Manila traders did hold their positions well. I agree though there is Manila and then there is Manila/ha!
Thanks
Jim
Hi Ya’ll,
I hope everyone is well. I would like to submit a thought for the day regarding something I briefly touched upon in an earlier comment. As most of you know I am a financial trader. Some would say a successful one at that. I look at all markets including global real estate and commodity interests if only to get a handle on price information. I concentrate in the currency markets and dabble in the rest. Except in real estate, where I invest in land. For various reasons, but mainly for mineral and water rights.
However there are two markets I have avoided. It is the STOCK MARKET and the METALS.(I know, I am going to upset some of Rusty’s readers) but I never became an avid fan of placing my money where it could be manipulated. Let me explain:
I execute my trades in global currencies (hence I don’t go around in Thailand passing out my business card) it could get me killed, per their last devaluation. By the way they asked for it, but that is another story. Through all my investment life, substantiated by the counting of my age rings, I have always searched for investments that had action from fundamentals but not dominated by manipulation. All markets have some manipulation.
When I first starting trying to build my nest egg as a young man I got into the real estate business. It was like a duck taken to water. I was very successful and in a short period of time. Some smart plays, some lucky plays, but always coupled with a lot of hard work. I then took my new found wealth and dabbled in the stock markets and a little in commodities.
Long story short, for the beginners. If the stock market of today can be summed up in one phrase, it would be this. It is a rich man’s game! And it is manipulated by them! Your analysis and hard work mean nothing in that game. That’s not to say there is not money to be made, but for the ordinary man on the street, your mattress is a better investment for safety. Now on to commodities, specifically metals. It is a manipulated game. There are forces at hand that can move those market that the common working stiff doesn’t normally see, I suppose he is too busy working!
For example. There are rumors and papers being floated around this morning about silver. In short there are claims about a certain big financial house making, oh, about a 1/4 of a billion dollars in one day off of silver. Now normally I wouldn’t even raise an eyebrow to that number but something strange happened. One would assume with the economic forces of the recent past,(global construction needs, etc.) that type of profit would have been made on the upside of holding that metal. But a closer look shows the money was made on the downside of the price of silver. Hmmm……
Then there was a class-action lawsuit, that if read, attempts to described the manipulation of the metal. Long story short, be very careful into falling into the trap of manipulated markets. It really is a fools game. Technologies now allow the movement of financial instruments, commodities and currencies at the speed of light. It has created choppy unstable markets in some, while creating new markets in others.
However, it is my personal opinion that the stock and metal markets have really been a source of manipulation and continue to be. Some say as the Thais do, as well as other countries who point the finger at foreign exchange trading, all describe how we swoop down on a country and destroy the very fabric of humanity. Hogwash! All governments are frightfully afraid of the currency trader. For good reason.
It is because we only move towards a currency that is not being managed properly either by bad government policies, internal conflict, corruption and more. Some governments protect their worthless currency by control restrictions. It can’t float, as it would be destroyed by the markets and all their illegal and inept laundry would be aired. However it is not the trader who destroys the currencies. It are the governments. They try their best to manipulate it, but the foreign exchange market for all general purposes is just too big to manipulate. That’s why they bad mouth currency trading. They can’t manipulate it.
Now back to the stock market and metals. The players are the manipulators. And lately they have teamed up with governments to exchange these inside heists. The financial institutions attempt to liquidate their mistakes while the government acts as their accomplice, in some cases.
Now having subjected Rusty’s readers to this lengthy sermon, it is not my desire to sway anyone from attempting to participate in the markets. Any legitimate market. I simply suggest that you go in with your eyes wide open when moving around these exciting and yes lucrative but sometimes manipulated global markets.
It is similar to the old poker strategy. Take one look around the table and look for the fool. If you can’t find him, it is most likely you. I know, I have been the fool in many of those dealt games. But overtime I learned. I learned what to look for and what to avoid, I just hope I can give you an insight with my comments. Good luck and good investing. But more importantly, Great thinking!
Just a thought
Jim
Hi Rusty,
The pressure on the dollar(meaning it is falling in value)is starting to happen again in the markets. The overnight jawboning of the Japanese gov. doesn’t seem to be holding. I don’t blame them for trying but if they want the yen to slide in price they are going to have to intervene and purchase dollars.
That could put additional pressure on the Peso. In an earlier comment I suggested to wait out this move because it has to happen and those who use the Peso in their daily lives may reap a small but useful windfall.
just a thought,
Jim
Hi Jim, Thanks for the long insight letter.
On this website two of us are most likely the only guys who understand trading because of the hands-on experience. There could be other people invested but I doubt if they are doing it the day-traders way.
This said, I do agree on your view of the manipulated markets, especially the metals, you are right, Forex is the safest to trade. I wish I had known that 12 years ago.
I looked at the $USD and $GOLD and have concluded that technically $GOLD is poised for a spike-up. I still have a position in gold that I will keep until early December of this year.
That will be my last trade ever.
The date 12/21/12 will be catastrophic for $GOLD and a fortune to be made for $USD Forex traders!
When I say spike-up on $GOLD, that implies that an impending and significant global event is about to happen within days or a few weeks from now. My guess is that it won’t be the war with Iran. I am rather worried about Obama.
Hi Bob,
You may find my recent comment below interesting even though I did not touch on a gold scenario.
Thanks
Jim
Hi Rusty and his merry band of readers,
I have spent most of the day looking at the dollar/Yen/Euro and the politics which will have a major impact on the U.S. Dollar and the Philippine Peso.
All arrows are pointing for a rise in the dollar/yen (meaning the dollar will gain against the yen) during 2012. The Yen’s gains cannot be allowed to maintain its current position against the dollar. The Japanese economy is starting to suffer. Their exports have always been dollar/yen sensitive but I am now starting to see strong signs of impending layoffs and factory closings in its future. These Japanese companies simply cannot survive with a 75-76 dollar/yen rate.
It is taking its toll on some of the biggest and most powerful companies in Japan. Earthquakes, tsunamis, radiation leaks topped off with a strong yen that is destroying their exports has finally taken its toll. There is no choice but to create a weaker yen. Will it be an immediate intervention or a slow but relentless one? Perhaps it will be a combination of both. I don’t know.
But there is one thing I know for sure. If there was ever a sure thing to bet on, it is a stronger dollar/yen in 2012. They simply have no choice. I have put on long positions in my dollar/yen account and I have no intentions of removing them this year.
Now on to the euro. The euro is not so easy of a tell. Mainly because of turmoil in not just one but many countries in and out of the EU. However it too points to a stronger dollar/euro.( again meaning the dollar will gain in value) Greece for obvious reasons is a concern along with several other EU countries. There are elections that seem to be leaning toward the left/communism base.
The German leadership remains steadfast in their negotiations about Greece, causing Greece to miss several financial deadlines. A strong indicator that it may finally be coming to a head. The African Continent has continued turmoil that affects the EU directly but has great lag time in reaching the U.S. if at all. And last but not least, Iran. Should that wildcard erupt, the black markets will move oil to the EU as they always have, but they too deal in dollars and since oil is priced in dollars it will create a demand for dollars. These few simple facts mentioned also lead to a stronger dollar. I have positioned some funds in a long dollar/euro account but mainly look at this trade as an event trading strategy not hanging my neck out to far without seeing some action. Nevertheless it still points towards a stronger dollar.
One may be enticed to bring American politics into the fray but I don’t see that without a major event happening. It is an election year in the U.S. If the President wins re-election, nothing changes the above scenarios as they are based on him being there win or lose for 2012. So nothing changes that. If the Republican candidate wins, it will be viewed as a win for the Dollar. Much to the despair of the chicken little crowd. But in either case it still points to a stronger dollar/euro position for 2012. To summarize:
If one takes ownership of my scenarios for a strong 2012 dollar it would follow that those of you who are currently positioned in the Philippines would enjoy a stronger dollar. For those of us on who our on our way I would hold off on the plane ticket. It’s about to become a lot cheaper!
Just a thought
Jim
Jim, when you say oil will move to the EU do you mean that it is traded with the euro in the black markets?
It is a nice post.
I’ve seen some really bad statements coming out of the chicken little crowd. One guy was huge in early 2011. He made a lot of money preaching his trash. He said the dollar would completely fall apart in 2011. That it would become worthless and the world would no longer be using the greenback as the major source of currency and that even oil would no longer be traded in dollars. Along with the Russians claiming the USA would split into six different countries.
The profit of doom that suggested the dollar would become worthless actually used Iran as one of his indicators. He claimed Iran dumped all of their US currency. I’m guessing he was talking about T-bills. They probably did. But duh, we are putting sanctions on Iran. Trying to shut down all countries from dealing with its central bank. And we have frozen all Iranian funds before, and we might do it again. I wonder if that fear of the frozen funds had anything to do with Iran dumping the t-bills. I don’t wonder, of course it did. That is if they really did it. If they didn’t they should.
That guy has some very slick videos out there. Using all the slick tricks the psychologist teach advertisers. I need to do a refresher on the seven hooks advertisers use. Two of them are greed and scarcity. Oh and a third is that it is a secret and your getting in on the secret. Most have seen eBooks or software where there is a limited time to buy something. That is scarcity.
It is a nice post Jim, I hope you’re correct. Yeah the yen has slid a lot. I hadn’t thought about that but it has to be near the bottom. It was over 110 or maybe 120 not long ago? I know it was over 108 and now it is down to 70? Wow, yeah it can’t continue that
I am having trouble staying awake so I’m going to shut up. I wanted to get caught up with comments but I’m not going to be able to right now.
I stayed up all night, I got into some new bulletin board software and got into obsession mode on getting it up and running, now I’m burned out.
Hi Rusty,
Yeah you better watch that burn-out stuff you’ll become an old man like me before your time. lol
Yes there are a lot of slick ones out there hawking there wares! It’s really too bad as it takes advantage of the poor guy (and gals) that are simply trying to learn to invest.
It’s easier to sell gloom and doom than it is logic and calm. But as I said in an earlier post that’s why there are longs and shorts in the markets but it also adds to the turbulence in it also.
In the past decade the the public believes that the financial markets were the fastest growing segment in the U.S. when it has probably been the creation of financial education products. Which very ,very few have good intentions. I will answer your question with a post later this morning as I have a meeting getting ready to start.
Hope you feel better!
Jim
One trait of mine, like any other trait, has both good and bad. I can be obsessive. When I kick into that mode, you can be sure I will solve the issues. haha Me giving up is a rare thing indeed.
I do tend to be too intense. Can make someone good at what they do but it really can kill you. I destroyed my health during my college years. Three jobs and full time student, with a family and buying a home. Was I freaking crazy to take all that on? I was also going to the most difficult school in Ms and perhaps the south. Millsaps in the 80s.
Why am I worried about Obama?
Because Hillary Clinton is an opportunist, she will want to exploit Obama’s economic recovery failure and will run for president this year.
Expect her to make a BIG announcement soon!
If she decides to run, you can bet your flip-flops that she will win!
BIG TIME WIN!
Her announcement to run for president could spike-up $GOLD all the way to early November.
That may not be too good for the $USD but I would not expect any spectacular (up or down) spike.
Hi Bob,
Hillary Clinton is no longer going to be in politicts. As ahe stated last week in the new interview.
Hi Matthew
I wonder if you are referring to this article?
Remember that all politicians lie!
Political power is a very powerful and highly addictive drug.
“…But, she appeared to leave the door open for a possible eventual return, adding to laughter from the crowd that “everyone always says that when they leave these jobs…”
She may be just taking a few days off before she announces her new plans.
Hi Rusty,
I read your last comment about your obsession. I can relate.
Sitting in a earlier meeting with mostly kids who are 20-40 years younger than me got me thinking about their future. I listened to their short but direct responses to my questions and realized that the excitement and drive that I experienced as a young man is as much alive and driven as I was at that age. It simply is channeled in a technological theme. I envy there drive, their excitement and their lust for life. But most of all I envy their naiveness.
For it is our naiveness that instills the ability for adventure. To travel to places such as the Philippines. To build and developed things that others can’t or won’t try. Naiveness permits us to think of extraordinary possibilities by not accepting “No” for an answer.
I find the Philippine people in all my travels even though instilled with a “laid back” attitude has defined its ability to survive in sometimes harsh and unforgiven circumstances with a naiveness to not accept “no” for an answer. I wondered, if my guys knew how much in common they had with the Philippine people.
just a thought,
Jim
Hello Rusty and all his would be investors,
Let me begin with the following case. Suppose you had the ability to control the amount of money you wanted simply by printing it. Now suppose the the world was dependent on a certain fluid. Now suppose you were able to price that fluid only in the money you printed up for yourself. Man would that be great! Whoopee,Yahoo, Holy S— I think I’m going to Disney land!
Well,in a grade school manner,(My writing ability is about the same)we have just described how the oil business works! It is priced in dollars, we print dollars, and the world is dependent on both. You can now see why some in the world want another reserve currency, I wonder who that may be? Ok, I will give you a hint, it’s CHINA.
It is also good fuel to inflame the “One world currency” fanatics. Although I miss their point of perception, we already use a world currency we created at the IMF, but that’s another game.
The point is, if the Iranian Nuke story “blows up”(no pun intended) it would have severe fallout for the oil markets which in turn would create underground black markets in oil. Which by the way are already in place and have been used for many years. So if you are concerned about the black marketeer, don’t be. His infrastructure is fine and dandy. My research even shows new routes and brand new freeways built across the rugged mountains of the Middle east. The Mexican drug mules have nothing on these guys. Ok enough.
Since oil is priced in dollars, oil will eventually have to be paid in dollars much to the disdain of the end users. (Ha! Take that China!) Hence the creation of another black market, the flow of dollars. All pointing to another demand for dollars. They don’t call it the Euro dollar for nothing!
Now follows the fundamental case that if there is a demand for something and you add scarcity to it, it could become very, very expensive. Both oil prices and the price of dollars. If you see this taking place and you live in the Philippines get ready to park your car and take a jeepney. Save your dollars!
just a thought
Jim
Hi Rusty and friends,
It has been an interesting day in the markets and i will post later on that subject. But for now allow me to describe what is sitting in front of me.
On my desk are eight 23” monitors with two laptops and a desk computer. All solid state and all built to spec.One monitor displays news from around the world 24/7. Another displays charts and graphs and other confusing items that only a mother could love. Yet Another displays Netflix, Hulu, television shows, dvd’s, you know, the necessities of life. Yet still, another displays nothing but global foreign exchange rates. Hey, a guy has got to make a living.
Then I have another that broadcasts streaming video’s from around the world from almost every conceivable spot on earth and every conceivable subject, most all converted to English translated versions. Then I have another monitor that displays, let me see, I have lost count but I think it’s in the thousands now, of every conceivable newspaper that is being printed including special blogs and newsletters.
Then I have another screen( I’m really proud of this one) that has nothing but global maps on it that the CIA would envy. It’s a specialized service I use out of Dallas. Hell I think I could read the License tags off a Mongolian horse wagon from 50,000 feet. I can personally attest to the view of a sunbathing beauty lying on a Santa Barbara beach on a clear day.
Then I have one that is for writing stuff. Not good stuff, but just ordinary stuff. I call this my Andy Rooney monitor. Then last but not least I have one that is blank. I don’t really use it much. I think it is for back-up. At least that’s what the 17 year old salesman told me when he sold it to me.
just a thought,
Jim
Hello Rusty,
The Euro/dollar has really taken a jump and I see where it has strengthened the Peso. The hope of a Greece bailout plan is being bantered around in the markets. The spikes in the Euro may be just that and nothing more. Greece missed another deadline so who knows what is going to happen.
But you can see the Peso has certainly become a mimic of the Euro. So for those who live there watch the Euro for tell-tell signs of where the Peso may be heading. It can provide you with advanced guidelines for purchasing simple things such as when to buy food or gas. A dollar here and a dollar there will add up at the end of the month. I am still long the dollar though.
I am more involved with the dollar/yen movements. As I posted yesterday I expect the Yen to be devalued either through intervention or slow but continuous purchasing of the dollar so as not to create havoc in the currency markets. As I indicated before, it is going to happen as they have no choice; the strength of the Yen is simply choking off their exports and the Japanese central bank won’t hesitate to go it alone if they have to intervene.
For those that may be following the comments, my positions and hopefully yours, the overnight trade has made you a lot of money. I positioned myself at 76.50 and it is currently sitting at 77.10. You hopefully caught a 60 pip move. For those of you who are wondering what that move equates to, it is earning about 16% on your invested dollar in 24 hours. That buys a lot of San Miguel.
Just a thought
Jim
Hi Rusty and readers,
There is a misconception of what it takes to move to a new land. I suppose the adventurer in all of us can override common sense occasionally. Particularly if one throws wine, women, song and dance into our wishful thoughts. However, the wishful thoughts of lying on a beach with a cool one in your hand watching the waves roll in only last so long before reality hits. I admit I have not spent much time of late in the Philippines but I have traveled to dang near every country on the face of the earth. And everywhere I go I always have seen someone whose dream has fallen apart not to mention living on the streets.
You are at the mercy of several things when traveling. Rusty’s e-book is a must read for the adventurer considering a move or even a visit to the Philippines. But there is one thing that will follow you no matter where you go. And that is the foreign exchange rate. You must at least wrap your head around the idea that you are not in Kansas anymore when traveling and using an exchange rate. You can lose a lot of money using the wrong window or the convenient street exchanger simply by not knowing what is a fair value. Not to mention counterfeiting, short changers and more. I don’t know how many times I have seen people rush to an airport window and start changing money.
I personally don’t use windows or changers at all no matter where I am at. I will describe how I do travel and guarantee the price of my trips, safety and communications. I admit it takes a little money to travel the way I do but for peace of mind and safety it’s worth every penny to me. ($150 p/mos) I am a single traveler. I don’t have any family. So I have to be extra careful about how I travel. In short if I get into trouble outside the U.S. there ain’t nobody home to call for help. And in some countries the worst thing you can do is to call your embassy. And that goes for the Philippines.
I have a virtual office in Arizona. A fancy word for a mail drop. It is located in a prestigious high rise. The company that I use has offices in some of the most prestigious buildings in the world. Not only can my virtual office ship mail, packages etc. to me anywhere in the world where I am located, but they also can supply me with an office, staff, interpreters and anything else I might need including honest foreign exchange centers,introductions to bankers and medical referrals. Most importantly each immigration officer knows of the office buildings where I work and they assume I am a very important person upon arrival. Making checkpoints and immigration a lot smoother entry.
I have yet in my travels failed to find a taxi driver in any country that didn’t know where my office building was at. I use a bank that has centers just about everywhere I have my virtual offices. They are my support system. I got into hot water (innocent by-stander of course) in South America one time. With my cell phone and two calls to my support team I was out of jail and free to go within the hour. I don’t know what happened to the others, they may still be there.
Before you leave home make sure you study Rusty’s e-book. Make sure you have a support team. Not your momma, not your daddy but boots on the ground that have influence and know the system. It could save you a lot of money and perhaps even your life.
just a thought,
Jim
Jim,
I do have a few HARD questions to ask you!
Is there any realistic solution to the National Debt downward spiral?
What is your position on corporate propaganda media or better known as mainstream media?
What is the main reason behind the 65% drop in the Baltic Dry Index (the price of shipping) this year?
Do you know anything why there was a stoppage on February 3rd of the Federal Reserve Board owned Clearing House Interbank Payments System?
Thanks for answering
Hi Bob,
How are things at your place? Your comments raise some interesting thoughts don’t they?
1. Taxes and term limits. And lastly war.
2. I think they are manipulated like everything thing else.
3. Bob, since I don’t trade the futures much at all, my friends in Houston, Texas say there are containers after containers not to mention oil tankers sitting out in the gulf which have been waiting to unload. There is no room for them to unload.
They also indicated that new ships have been ordered because of the new technology that provides less fuel consumption and it is creating a glut of ships that have no future cargo as the global slowdown keeps creepy in. Now take this post with a grain of salt as I don’t keep track of it.
4. No I don’t, as I don’t trade or clear through the inter-bank system even though I place my orders with a major international platform I don’t deal directly with inter-bank quotes. That’s a different animal with different stripes. In short, that is a consortium of the big boys. I am not in that league.
I have friends of mine who are, but they are managing 1/4 billion dollar funds. For the banks, it has got to be a wonderful way to trade (if you define it as trading) when you have legal inside information to make money with, which includes the Feds. I think you would agree that most people actually believe their bankers and brokerage houses are professional traders when it fact they simply have information of who is placing orders in advance and simply front running the info. (there ought to be a law/ha)
Most of these people know nothing about trading except how to place and front run information. Look at MF Global. Corzine, who came from Goldman tried to trade and he took down the largest futures company in history.
As a side note Bob, I worked in Wash. D.C. with the investigative committees. Uncovering financial fraud and commodity manipulation of all types. I saw just about every delay, mismanagement, theft, white washes, swept under the rug tactics that money could buy and none was initiated by the little guy. Money talks and more money creates back door policies.
Politics is similar to trading. Both parties depend on honesty in the transaction. We can’t legislate honesty so they are going to do next best thing. They will tax us to death, they will legislate us to death and when they need to start over and balance the books they will start a war. The type of conflict is yet to be determined but when all else falls they will resort to it to burn all obligations and clear the books. But the world will kick that can down the road for as long as they can also.
Thank you for your comments, I wish I were an expert in your field of questions but I am not. It is simply a point of view and I caution Rusty’s readers to perform their own due diligence using questions such as your post as great examples. I only wish there were more reader comments like yours as we all learn from each other.
Thank you very much,
Jim
Fox news is so main stream it makes my head spin every time they use that word. And they are nothing but corporate. They are backed by republicans. I can’t figure out if Fox is stupid or evil.
The USA has had more debt as a percent of GDP than it has now. Though we are at near record levels and the dollar has been weaker though it too is near record lows.
People have been saying this dooms day stuff since I was 15. When we were fifteen everyone was talking about the good old days. Now those horrible days are our good old days.
Here is the $BALTIC DRY INDEX
on a chart.
Notice that there was a dip at the end of 2008 during the last stock market meltdown.
Today there is no stock market meltdown and yet, the $BDI is all the way down.
If you didn’t notice it yet, businesses world-wide are experiencing a downturn at this moment.
Hi Bob,
It doesn’t look pretty does it? Not to mention confusing/Ha!
Thanks
Jim
This is what Wikipedia says.
By February 3, 2012, the index made a new multi-decade low of 647 on a continued glut of container ships and decreases in orders of iron and coal.
Coincidentally it hit the bottom on the same date as the stoppage of the Federal Reserve Board owned Clearing House Interbank Payments System?
This, doesn’t look good!
Hi Bob,
You bring up an interesting piece of research. Now that you bring up the subject I do wonder what the relationship is, if any, between the two?
Thanks
Jim
Hello Rusty, and goooood morning readers!
That’s my cheap version of Robin Williams/ha! Well it is about 9am Arizona time. I think that puts it about 12 am your time??? I am sure most of you are up studying your investment charts and placing trades all over the world. lol
Let me start with my recent post regarding our position on the Yen. As you recall the position yesterday in overnight trading returned a whopping 16%. It currently sits at 77.35 We quite frankly made enough money last night to not work for the rest of the year. Our prediction that the Yen had nowhere to go but down in value is taking place. As you recall I had a position at 76.50 and it is now in the neighborhood of 77.40. That’s a 90 pip move in our favor.
That is also enough profit to sit on the beach with a cool one in hand without working the rest of the year. I hope you are heading out the door now. And it ain’t gonna stop. We haven’t scratched the surface of how much profit we can make off this position. As I said in a earlier post, I am long the dollar/yen ( meaning the dollar will go up in value) and I intend to squeeze every drop of profit out of this move.
Now a comment on the Peso. The Euro is pushing the 130 mark and the peso is going right with it. I posted earlier that if the Peso touches below 40 verses the dollar I am going to sell the peso as I believe the Peso can not survive at that rate. (It currently has gained to the 42.15 level) It would be caught in a Japan type move and I believe it would have to be devalued at that price. Now most of you can’t trade the Peso but you can hang on to your dollars as they could become very valuable later on this year. Good luck.
For those who are not trading but are perhaps one of Rusty’s readers who are interested in these posts and comments, I say learn from what is going on right now. We are experiencing a move in the dollar /yen that any one of you could have participated in. The general perception is, this is a confusing business. It’s not. It simply takes a little effort and a desire to better one position allowing you to work off a laptop while sitting on the beach if you desire. Technology has allowed you and I to travel to exotic places such as the Philippines and make a living at the same time. Take advantage of what is being discussed in these posts. If you have a question send it. We will all try to give you an answer.
Rusty has a keen ability to comment on the Peso, Read and learn from it. Bob ask in depth questions. Matthew and the others respond with insight. I don’t profess to know everything. I can’t. But I know, what I know. And I just made enough profit in two days to sit on the beach for the rest of the year. I want you to have the same ability. It doesn’t hurt me or Rusty to share this information with you. It’s good business for Rusty and I simply like to talk!/ha And the good part is, IT’S FREE!
So take the time and start. Yes, it’s a little confusing in the beginning but start. If you don’t like it stop. But if you can see your way through it, you will perhaps be sitting on the beach for the rest of the year wondering what the little people are doing! hehehe!
just a thought
Jim
But Jim, to earn big bucks you have to risk big bucks.
16% of $30 wont go very far. LOL 
The only thing that keeps me out of the market is I truly don’t have anything I can afford to loose right now. I also don’t have the time. But the day is coming. I’m really covered up right now.
Thanks for the words of encouragement on my “insight.” I don’t have it always. From time to time I can predict when the dollar will fall or rise against the peso. That I can do but I can’t trade in the peso.
The dollar sure has been on a nose dive in the last week or so. One would think that it has to move the other way soon. The interest rate cut in the Philippines signals to me though that central bank sees growth slowing and eventually a weaker peso should result. On the other hand the US seems to be making a mockery out of the experts and the economy is picking up. That’s driving the dollar down. However, I have no doubt that the Euro’s problems are not yet over and that will save the dollar once again.
Greece should be playing “Pappa Don’t Preach” because ti is in trouble deep.
Jim there’s some talk about the dying dollar in the new forum. If you get a chance please stop in and throw your two cents in. I think because of my casual nature, or maybe my poor grammar people tend to underestimate me. Maybe they’ll listen to you. As for me, I’m Columbo, go ahead underestimate me.
Here is the LINK It SHOULD open in a new window so you don’t loose your place. If you have time. You’ll have to register again.
Hi Rusty,
You are a busy fellow! I will pay them a visit but send them over here so we can all get’em. lol
Jim
Hi Rusty,
I’m not smart enough to post on the site. I registered but I have never posted to a forum. I’ll figure it out when I have time. LOL
You are right about the 30 dollars but it would buy a few cigars and a camera by the end of the year! LOL
Jim
That’s the problem I have with people that prefer forums and the reason I went ahead and set it up. To attract those that prefer forums.
When you first go in you have to enter captchas too often but after your first post and a day they will go away. After a few more days and a few more post, your message wont be held for moderation any longer.
It may not have been you Jim. Sometimes I foul up the permissions. Him, now I recall saying fowl the other day when it should have been foul. I even went back and change it thinking I had used the wrong form of the word. LOL
Yeah the guy is a friend of mine but he prefers forums and thinks it is more expensive to live in the Philippines than the USA. Very few people think that but he’s not the only one I hear it from. I only hear it from people that don’t actually live here though. They stay for several months but they don’t live here.
He also seems to think the dollar is dying. As do many here. When you get a chance give it a try.
There is a forum about the dollar exchange. You click on that and then you have to click on then the messages should display. You click on one of those and hit reply to post or reply to thread. I’ll log in as a new user and make sure all is working correctly. i sure hope so.
Yes, I’m swamped right now. I had too much going on and then I took on the new forum software. I didn’t quite know what I was biting off. It has a lot of options. Making it easy to foul up the other options.
Once I learned how to get traffic to a website it seems that I spend more time doing that then actually working directly on the site. That’s a pain.
I’m very tired right now but not sleepy. At first when you said I should send them over, I thought you meant you were sending girls. LOL I must have girls on the brain today. They keep coming up.
Oh, I spent a lot of time working on my pictures. Tom has been on me for not posting enough pictures of Filipina so I took a lot during Sinulog. Probably why hot Filipina keep popping u in my mind now. haha
Hi Rusty,
Flash Notes/Philippines
I have learned last night that the United States Navy is about to test its new open-source intelligence tools against the insurgents in the Philippines. I suspect it is analysing Abu Sayyaf’s gurrrilas and all their social networks and communications. It kinda confirms my earlier post that the U.S. will always have a military presence in the Philippines even though not major.
For those perhaps trying to develop a new business in the Philippines you might want to think about this information;
For the first time in the history of Philippine tourism, total visitor arrivals in the country in 2011 reached 3.917 million—11.28% higher than the 3.520 million posted in 2010 and also surpasses by 4.6 % DOT’s 2011 target visitor arrivals of 3.7 million.
The country capped 2011 with 394,567 tourists arriving in December, strongest among all months last year. But November proved to be the biggest gainer, improving 19.80 % from the same month in 2010 with 337,021 visitors. Ten out of the twelve months last year saw figures north of 300,000. The 2011 figure also includes returning overseas Filipinos, who numbered 207,152.
East Asia continued to lead all regional markets with 1,837,681 arrivals, 46.91 % of the entire number last year. Korea repeated as the strongest single market with 925,204 arrivals for a 23.62% share of all visitor volume. Elsewhere in the region, Japan (375,496 visitors, 9.59% share), China (243,137, 6.21%) and Taiwan (181,738, 4.64%) ranked 3rd, 4th, and 5th among all individual markets respectively, while Hong Kong’s 112,106 visitors were good for 9th place.
China and Taiwan were the greatest gainers, up 29.71% and 27.58% from 2010, respectively. Visitors from the U.S., the Philippines’ second-largest tourist market, totaled 624,527 for 15.94% of all tourist traffic. Australia and Canada experienced double-digit growth to 170,736 and 117,423 arrivals, 6th and 9th most among all countries.
Meanwhile, Singapore and Malaysia provided the majority of the 331,672 visitors from ASEAN, with which the Philippines expects greater integration in tourism following the 15th Meeting of ASEAN Tourism Ministers in Manado, Indonesia. Northern and Western Europe posted near-identical numbers after modest growth with 164,205 and 157,265 arrivals, respectively.
Emerging markets India and Russia continued their rapid ascent, improving 23.89% and 37.86% from 2010 numbers to 42,844 and 20,185 visitors, respectively. The Middle East also remained robust, registering 55,829 arrivals for a 14.60% climb.
In one of my earlier posts I wrote about the footprint of America departing and the silent footprint of Asia encroaching. These numbers tend to confirm that thought. A lot of these new visitors will visit and return to start new industries. It would be wise for you, for those who are looking to develop a new business to study these numbers and track their developments. You just might find a unique and unusual business opportunity that lies within all these visitors. Good Luck!
just a thought,
Jim
People are always complaining about Koreans. Koreans make up the largest number of visitors these days. Or maybe that just to Cebu. ‘m not sure. I’ve seen all of those numbers though never put together quite so well. I should have written a story on that.
I don’t have the time to do a lot of research right now though so I have to write from the heart and most people prefer those type of articles. The thing is, I have to be inspired for one of those stories.
Thanks for the refresher, mot of those numbers had long ago left my mind.
Yes the military is here. Primarily the SEALs are here. Perhaps other special OPs but mostly SEALs. Now they never admit that but one can read between the lines. Who else would be doing the kind of mission you spoke of above. The CIA and the SEALs do that stuff. There was drone shot down here a couple of years ago too.
Yes it is Abu Sayyaf and other similar groups. There are several smaller terrorist groups here. Some have ties to Abu and others broke off from them after internal disputes.
I would like to get Jessie in the tourism business. To be a registered tour guide or travel agent you must be Filipino. I use to think any business in that trade you had to be Filipino. That may still be true but I can’t find that now. I may have not understood the term registered tour agent.
Many expats do that though.
Hi Rusty,
These visitor numbers also speak loud and clear where the currency value is compared to the Peso and their global purchasing power. If you keep an eye on these figures you will start to see a shift in visitation due to forex value. You will start to see it drift to more valued areas as the fallout of de-leveraging continues throughout the world.
The last time I checked a foreign held corporation who basically didn’t have a small retail operation and store front could own a 100% of the stock but that may not be right. I have an attorney in Manila/Las Vegas that I have used that is good I will contact him and find out.
I used some indie tour guides in China and Thailand and they were very good and honest. They were extremely valued people during my trips and I would not hesitate to use the services anywhere in the world including the places I have been before. They averaged about $100.00 p/day plus expenses and some supplied a vehicle. It was a good value for me. I would imagine Jess would be great at that.
I would think there would be a lot of business for a clearing house for business services as a flat fee plus costs operation. There is a lot of interest in setting up businesses in the Cebu area but there is no one source that people trust to go to as their experts on set-ups.
The Philippines need to learn how many people like myself would move to Cebu in the morning if they would provide prompt professional one-stop information. Tourism is one thing but sitting up a business in a foreign land and trying to figure out all the red tape is forbidding and it stops people like me from participation.
With that said, a person who can unravel the Cebu cubic maze in a one stop shop would be invaluable to people like me. A one stop shop on the internet with boots on the ground service I would pay the fee for that service because if I am wrong on my own, it could cost me a lot more than their retainment fee. But I’m just thinking out loud right now.
A cleaning business in the Philippines? I can hire a live in 24 hour a day nanny for less than $40 a month in Bogo and around $100 a month in Manila. People are not going to pay much for cleaning services here. That’s a no-go business here. It is great in the USA, I’d love to have one then maybe I could have afforded to have my house cleaned. Oh boy did it need it. LOL
I wish you would ask the attorney. I found the document last night but only part of it. What I remember is or THOUGHT that I understood was that only a Filipino could have an “accredited” travel agency or operate as a tour guide. Further I thought I found where only an accredited travel agent or tour guide could operate within the Philippines. It is that second part that I can no longer confirm.
I personally couldn’t do it right now, my health is not good enough.
Four years ago when I was looking into it was. I was walking 2 mils a day on average but now I can’t walk at all. My feet have once again cracked. If I walk right now it will become very painful and could lead to infection so I’m once again stationary. 
I’d love to do that business. Oh well, still a good life. It will get better too. 
Hi Rusty,
I read your above comments and cracked up laughing! Not a CLEANING business- A CLEARINGHOUSE business! A clearinghouse for information regarding the procedures of setting up businesses and cutting through the red tape. I’m still laughing. I think my spelling led you down the house cleaning path/hahaha
Yes, if the attorney is in country I will ask the him his thoughts on your other question and get back to you.
My GF got a big kick out of your comments on a cleaning business, I will have to improve on my spelling or perhaps I am like you I simply don’t sleep much.
Pretty funny,
Jim
Oh geesh, I need to stop reading without my glasses and slow down. I need to hire or start my own outsourcing business. I do have hopes of an outsourcing business someday. I know enough, now I need to make enough money to hire some folks.
Hi Guys,
Did you know that there was a birthday boy in our foreign exchange group? Yes that’s right; the EU just celebrated its 10th year of the European currency in 12 countries, commonly known as the euro zone, which by the way now has at last count, subject to change on a daily basis, contains 17 members I believe. Soon to be 16 if they are not careful.
The head poon-tangs of Europe marked the 10th anniversary of the introduction of the euro by urging governments in the currency bloc to save and consolidate to overcome their debt crises. Hmmm…..I wonder how that’s going?
Let’s take an honest look at how THAT is going. The ongoing crisis, slowing world demand, coupled with a growing public debt bubble which continues to spiral out of control as I write, along with social tensions with the gap between rich and poor widening as you read these comments, are creating what a weatherman would refer to, as a perfect storm.
Behind the curtain of all this mess is a beauty pageant going on. It’s called the “less ugly contest”. Yes that’s right. The “less ugly contest!” How would you like to be in that contest? Well I have news for you, you are! If you are one of the fortunate few who reside or visit the colorful and delightful islands of the Philippines you have made the pageant finals. Congratulations! Donald Trump would be so proud. Perhaps that’s why he sold his name to a new condominium project in the Manila. Anyway……
Among the world’s currencies in this “less ugly contest”, the dollar is likely to perform very well in the talent portion, particularly as the world continues to de-leverage. The dollar contestant in this pageant has a talent that not all contestants have, but wish they had, and that is the U.S. contestant doesn’t have a problem financing itself. And the other contestants would kill to have that same talent. The world judges marvel at this dollar contest because she can print her own money! While the other ugly contestants sit around waiting for the head poon-tangs make a final judgement, the ugly dollar contestant simply keeps on dancing.
It this glittery world of the “less ugly contest” the dollar will most likely win. The runner ups are just too ugly to win. Oh the euro will slap on some lipstick on the old pig but the judges will see that it is still a pig. And when they do the peso will follow the hog to the trough. Yes, it is a “less ugly contest” but the less ugly one of all is the dollar. Who would have THUNK it! Hang on to your dollars!
Just a thought
Jim
Nice comment Jim, once again if you want to write articles for the blog, let me know.
Hi Rusty,
I’m not a stock trader, but I do know stocks hate higher interest rates because it slows down economic growth. So this was a big reason many emerging market stocks like the Philippines and surrounding countries experienced a poor performance.
Philippine exports fell an annual 20.7 percent in Dec. It is probably laying the ground work for an interest rate cut to boost demand for their exports. The Japan syndrome may be hitting the shores of the Philippines perhaps substantiating our prediction of a stronger dollar/peso. Hang on to your dollars.
If there is an agreement reached on the Greece crisis we may see a temporary slide for the dollar but I would expect to see a retracement after reality sets back in and move to the upside again. Traders expect the Euro to get a boost from an agreement.If it does it will probably be short lived.
There are still huge problems that lie ahead. I think there is a strong chance the Euro may not even see an upside. It may already be factored in at the current price. Boy that would cause some traders to jump out of a window!
The peso has been all over the place today. At one point it dropped below 42.It touched the 41.90 area at one point Then the market found out about the Dec. export news. It has now moved back to the 42.3 area as I write.
Investors looking around for value often cite Japanese stocks or U.S. real estate, but if you want something that’s really cheap – it’s money. Money is probably as cheap as it’s ever been. it’s the best buy in the world right now. As you and I have discussed we both recall when the dollar/yen was trading at the 140 level. It is now trading at the 76-77 level. It’s cheap! Too cheap and it’s going to have to get stronger. So if you are looking for a good investment it is money right now.
just a thought,
Jim
Yea, I know your not into stocks. And I had forgotten about the point of higher interest rates rise the cost of capital. Meaning for a business to buy a new asset, like delivery truck on a loan, the business has to earn more in order for buying the truck to be a good move. That’s what the economics professors use as an example. Of course it gets more complicated than that. I also can’t see a business person sitting down to consider those points. At least not in the detailed way they teach in school. We all do it in our heads though.
Thus, as you pointed out, it is harder for businesses to expand and thus they may not continue with growth. That’s why growth stocks get people into trouble during a booming economy.
I also hadn’t thought the lower yen and lower peso making the dollar cheaper. Since it takes more yen to get a dollar it seems like the dollar would be more expensive when one thinks of it that way. Explain it to me. I do understand that with lower interest rates in the USA that makes the dollar cheap.
I’m surprised the export news was as shocker, it was like that in November as well. In fact, I thought that was an old news but I must have been recalling the November number. I don’t remember what it was but it was in that area. It has been blamed mostly on fewer exports to Europe. That has also been a major reason why the trouble in Europe has been causing the peso to fall and the dollar to go up.
Export businesses in the Philippines are hurting but I’ve been told by one Filipino reporter that it is not a major factor in the countries economy. Its not tiny but infusion of dollars into the economy is 10% of the economy.
Wow, I’m really tired. I’m going to have to shut up and lay down.
I wont stay down long though.
Hi Rusty,
That’s an interesting comment made by the reporter you talked with. He says the dollar infusion is only 10% of the current economy. If that is the thought then my post regarding the sandwich policies of the Philippines is in fact valid. However if one takes ownership of the reporters belief and we know the Peso mimics the Euro at the present time, it would validate my post on the coming value of the dollar.
If the dollar represents 10% of the economy then what represents the other 90%? Is it yen, euros, yuan???? If one takes a look at their military expenditures it is payed in dollars.That may change to yuan if they start buying from the Chinese but if their main expenditures of outside purchase ie. oil and military etc. is paid in dollars then the dollar is really going to soar in value in the Philippines this year. Particularly if it mimics the euro.
No I always have said they have left their country to outside powers they can’t control and they didn’t have to, but it is easier than suffering a do over! But costly in the end.
Jim
After looking into the $BDI for at least several hours I have discovered a disturbing evidence that something HUGE is cooking. NO KIDDING HERE!
I will get back to you over the week end.
Jim, let me know if you are you familiar with advanced technical analysis based on Fibonacci number?
That is my principal tool.
Hi Bob,
I am glad your dialog is concentrated on charts and technical tools. I have other friends such as yourself who are experts on those tools. I quiet frankly am not one of them. It’s not that I’m a non-believer it is more that I am an expert in behavioral finance.
I was discussing with Rusty on another post that I had written a book titled ‘Investment Thinking” it was the finest material I ever published. I was like a new father holding his new-born child in the air for the world to see. I think I sold maybe 2-3 copies/ha! Thank goodness for my mother and father as I probably would not have sold any. However I did go on the seminar circuit and drew a cadre of critics both believers and non. It was a fun time.
You guys have stirred my interest in a re-write and trying again in a e format. The more one delves into the mind game of trading the more one gravitates towards behavioral finance and its consequences, at least in my case. If I would have combined charts and tech systems, with what I know, I think I would blow up!
Back to your thoughts. I use charts and technicals in about 10-20 percent of my business. However my brokers are experts on both subjects and I depend a lot on their tell signs and explanations to me. I don’t understand half of what these kids tell me but I let on that I do./Ha! Both subjects interest me, for obvious reasons and I relish the thought of learning more from your explanations, thoughts and displays.
The interpretation of techs and charts vary as much as the interpretation of my investment style but that doesn’t make either position wrong I simply have learned to respect what works for one may not work for the other but both may be successful. The readers need to know that. Investing is a personal thing and each has to use the skills that work best for them as you and I do. Even though we may reach the same conclusion by different means.
I am an expert on what to do with information. No matter what the resource. Fundamentals, charts, techs or just good old fashion libraries. I can manipulate information as well as anybody and I am addicted to the puzzle solving. To think I will learn more about techs and charts from you is very appreciated as it will help me and Rusty’s readers. I look forward to your posts and me learning more from your thoughts.
Thank you,
Jim
P.S., Bob, maybe there is hope for me yet and you can teach this this old dog some new tricks!/ha
I found this in one of Israel’s online news.
US defense secretary estimates Israel likely to strike Iran between April and June – before it reaches ‘zone of immunity’ in development of nuclear bomb, Washington Post columnist David Ignatius says Yitzhak Benhorin. US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta believes that Israel is likely to strike Iran in the coming months, Washington Post columnist David Ignatius said Thursday. “Panetta believes there is strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June – before Iran enters what Israelis described as a “zone of immunity” to commence building a nuclear bomb,” Ignatius wrote.
Asked by journalists whether he disputes the report, Panetta said, “No, I’m just not commenting.” He added, “What I think and what I view, I consider that to be an area that belongs to me and nobody else.” He noted that Israel has stated publicly that it is considering military action against Iran, adding that US has “indicated our concerns.” Panetta, along with US President Barack Obama warned Israeli officials against opting for a military offensive in Iran, saying it would jeopardize the international sanctions program and other non-military efforts to stop Iran from crossing the nuclear “red line.” Even so, Ignatius claimed that senior officials in the Obama administration have yet to decide how to respond if an Israeli military strike materializes. The columnist states that “Israeli leaders are said to accept, and even welcome, the prospect of going it alone and demonstrating their resolve at a time when their security is undermined by the ‘Arab Spring’.”
Another strike in a few years
The Israeli scenario, according to Ignatius, is a five day limited offensive, followed by a UN-brokered ceasefire. The relatively light damage that is expected to be inflicted on Iranian nuclear facilities will require Israel to stage another offensive a few years down the line. Ignatius notes that American officials see two possible options to dissuade Israel from attacking: Serious talks with Iran – including full access and supervision over its nuclear program – or increased US covert operations that will undermine the nuclear program to the extent that Israel is convinced an attack is no longer necessary.
However, such options might be in vein because Prime Minister Netanyahu has already made a decision to attack in the next six months, Ignatius claims. Meanwhile, Defense Minister Ehud Barak on Thursday said that if sanctions are unsuccessful in compelling Iran to abandon its nuclear program, the international community will have to examine other options.
“There is a global understanding that if the sanctions don’t achieve the coveted goal of stopping the Iranian military nuclear program, an operation would have to be considered,” he said at the Herzliya Conference.
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Yesterday I found this in an another forum, people in Israel know that the war with Iran is imminent!
“…I have a good friend whose wife originates from Israel and has family there. She told me that her brother who apparently has connections to their military said that war with Iran is going to happen in a matter of weeks. He was adamant so much so that he is planning on leaving Israel within the next two weeks with his family. War preparations are at an advanced stage and already some activities/sorties have occurred…”
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Now I understand better what is cooking. THE WAR IS IMMINENT!
Hi Bob,
I think as long as the assassination of their scientists are successful and it delays the implementation of operations I think we will simply kick the can down the road. However the hazard of that is it would create a shortage of brain power for Iranian needs, thus resorting to the importation of scientists.
I suspect those scientist will have to come from North Korea which really invites trouble and puts the U.S./China/Russia and the rest of the world at a crossroads. If any North Korean scientists were assassinated, Iran would be the least of our problems because it brings to the forefront a country that does have nukes and could likely use them. The pacific rim including the Philippines would be sighted in the cross hairs of a potential nuclear conflict.
In summary, if North Korea were brought into the picture, Asia and the Pacific Rim could be the center of a nuclear threat and there are no military bases in the Philippines. What goes around, comes around!
just a thought
Jim
Jim
Oh, how I wish we could communicate on chart interpretation technical level. I miss that.
These days charts look like,… well,… humm… try to imagine a big city airport where dozens of ambulances and fire trucks with flashing lights and sirens are expecting an imminent plane crash coming strait towards them.
An astounding number of technical alarms have been triggered recently, many of them after 2008.
This trend has been going-on since early 1992. The first one was Tokyo Stock Market Index ($NIKK).
Here I made a little illustration of what happened back in those days.
Now you can take this illustration to any stock broker in the world and ask them what they think about it and I can guarantee you that they will all agree on the final outcome,… ZERO!
Oh, it will take a few more years, perhaps a couple of decades, the decay is not a fast process.
Tokyo 1992 is fairly easy to see but there plenty of others out there that are not so obvious. One of them is $BDI.
All people in the trade know what is coming but none is allowed to talk. The corporate controlled media wouldn’t allow it.
The heck with it,… enough bad news, I am going to fertilize my Bananas and Papayas.
Have a good day.
I know plenty of stock brokers, one has a doctorate in fiance that would tell you that they don’t use technical analysis at all and that a this or any other chart certainly doesn’t mean the Yen is doomed for eternity.
To me, the rapid growth leading to the so called peak at H appears to be one massive over valuation bubble and that fall was the inevitable one. Hardly any two technical analyst will come up with the same theory at the same point when it actually happens. That rise they had just before the fall, that looks like any bubble. People think things are so good that it will never end. I remember Americans were feeling might down just before that happened. Seems like we were going through hard times and Japan was soaring but the tied changed. Probably much like China and America today.
I’m surprised there isn’t a bigger trough in 2011.
If you used the forum, you could upload those graphics right into your post.
I wonder, but don’t have time to go research it. Did the Yen find its mighty rise during that period? It would make sense as when a countries stocks are diving the value of the currency goes up in most cases. Better to put your cash in cash when stocks are falling. I can see a lot of selling going during the lost decade.
Hi Bob,
I think I will call my cousin who is a broker with a major firm in Chicago and put you two together. He is my go to guy for chart manipulation. And I am his go to guy when he has to borrow money because of his chart manipulation/LOL!
He really is good though and is great a conversationalist when it comes to charts and techs. I will see if he won’t join us. Besides I need to call him about the last money he borrowed from me for a margin call! BIG LOL
just kidding,
Jim
Hi Bob,
I sympathize with you having the knowledge and enjoyment of your charts and techs and not being able to sit down and have many people to have a good conversation with. I found myself the same way with trading in general. I don’t much care to engage my brokers although they are very good at what they do for me I keep my relationship with them at arms distance simply because it’s business. But my circle of friends simply don’t have the knowledge to sit down and have a good conversation any more than I have in their professions.
In the beginning it was really tough to manage and I became pretty much a loner which I suppose we all end up being. I have learned to be more sociable over the years but in the beginning I must have been a pain in the rear to live with. I suppose that’s one of the reasons I never got married./ha My GF who is from the Philippines is a great gal but is well aware of my solitude position and has come to accept it or perhaps tolerate it./ha
I enjoy your charts and position you describe and understand them very well after you explain your thoughts that co-inside with them so don’t give up on me as I am listening and learning with your every post.
Take care
Jim
Jim
All day-traders or swing traders are loners. We, as a specie are such a tiny minority that we are almost considered as freaks. Actually if I didn’t have any regular income, which I did through trading, I am pretty sure that I would have been here long ago. My girlfriend in Canada tolerated my trading simply because she was sure that I had a regular income, otherwise I would be out of her place long ago.
That is not everything. I am also pretty sure that you would agree with me that our vision of the world is TOTALLY and I really mean totally different from regular folks. I personally can hardly socialize any more because of the knowledge acquired through trading. There is no way in the world that you can get that kind of vision of the world if you work from 9 to 5. Actually knowing what we know is like living in a parallel world.
Once you live through 9/11 or 2008 melt down, then you know what this is all about. The world is not what we think it is and it is not what our professors were teaching us.
Sadly, today I almost envy the naivete of the regular folk.
Just to tell you one example: During the “feeding frenzy” of the last melt down in 2008 where shorts were laughing and longs had heart failures, I found the bottom to the minute. Now, how the hell could I do that if I wouldn’t know something and that something was not only limited to technical analysis.
My trading experience halted in 2010 but my projected analysis runs through all the way to 12/21/12.
That is why I can stick my neck and confidently say that GOLD will rally until that date and it will CRASH after that famous date.
Today I continue to live in a parallel world despite the fact that I am here. There is just too much “esoteric” stuff in my head that is hard to forget.
I thought day trading in the forex was the most common and why many more in that area do use technical vs fundamental? I’m wrong? I don’t claim to know.
Hi Bob,
I couldn’t have said it better! It is difficult to describes what goes on in a traders mind. In my published book there was a lot of people who did read it, but I remember one person writing to me simply saying, Jim if that’s what it takes to be a trader that’s too much work! Ha/ ha but i found that was true with most. Yes there are some odd quirks about it, but I wouldn’t trade it for anything else. Oops, there I go trading again! lol
Nice to hear your story,
Jim
Who says life is not exciting in Philippines!
Pictures moved to this link
This Cobra was there living under my compost pile for months… until today!
It scared the hell out me!
What she didn’t know was that I had a shovel in my hand.
Yeah, that is me on the photo with the dead snake on the stick.
My three dogs and the snake on the other photo.
Notice the dry corn.
We harvested it (only 40kg) two weeks ago and left it like this to dry and provide some shade for the sandy soil. Eventually it will rot.
Here is the video.
Video Posted Here
Very funny.
Hey Bob, please come join us in the forum. I think you’ll enjoy it. It is a much better place to “shoot the breeze” and perfect for you pictures that I enjoy. Check it out here.
Hope to see you there!
H Bob,
Great pictures and a really funny video. He is quiet the character. The laughter in the back ground tops off the whole video. It is a curious lifestyle you must live. As I indicated before to you I am not very familiar with your home island. I do have some sort of history knowledge of that island but have never been there. You will have to provide me with some insights on daily life and the community.
Looking at your pictures with you standing there relaxed in sandals and handling a snake in the air is a world a way from the three piece suit Wallstreet crowd! ha ha! It is a most interesting lifestyle.
Thank you for sharing,
Jim
Hi Everyone,
It is cold and cloudy in Arizona this morning. Similar to the Japanese Yen. To update you for those that have been following, this time last week we took a position at 76.50. We were long the dollar. (Meaning we thought the dollar would gain against the yen
This morning our position sets at 78.45. That’s almost a 200 pip move! Even after I have taken some profits off the table and still maintain a large long position (which by the way I am not getting out of) The trade has made about 30% ROI in about 4 trading days. Not bad and we are not through. Not by a long shot.
There are a lot of curious developments happening in and around the world. Some seen, some that are happening behind the scenes. They all point to a possible direction and shift in the world economy and a, now get this, a stronger dollar! Yes, you read that right. Again. As most of you know I have said hang on to your dollars because they are going to become very valuable this year.
For those of you who live in the Philippines you are about to experience a change of winds blowing your way. Some you will like (a stronger dollar) and some you will not like.(government) So hang on to your hats (and dollars) as the winds of the world are a’changing and they are coming to a Nipa near you.
just a thought,
Jim
Awww dang it, the Filipino people have most of my dollars. haha
The Yen did see some sun shine yesterday. My yesterday.
I see that volume was quite low though. If I remember my technical analysis that means most investor held firm believing the dollar will rise again. I actually tried to buy dollars yesterday with monopoly money. Couldn’t get the trade to go through.
What is a pip Jim. I know a little about it. Off to the right of the decimal point.
How does one have a 200 pip gain? I don’t think most of us have a clue what that means really.
Hello Rusty and readers,
A PIP is the smallest price change that a given exchange rate can make. Since most major currency pairs are priced to four decimal places, the smallest change is that of the last decimal point – for most pairs this is the equivalent of 1/100 of one percent, or one basis point.
Example: If the dollar/yen exchange rate read 78.4293
So the price would only move when the last of the four digits move. The last four digits are .4293 so if the next move reads 4294 it would have moved 1 pip. The smallest change in a currency pair would be in the last digit.
This would make one pip equal to 1/100th of a percent, or one basis point. For example, if the currency price we quoted earlier changed from 78.4293 to 78.4298, this would be a change of five pips. The difference between the 3 and 8. I know it can be a little confusing in the beginning.
Now there can be different values of PIPS. You might trade a smaller amount than I do. So your pip value might be$1.00 per pip move. Where as mine may be $10 so we may make the same trade at the same price on our dollar/yen trade. If we sold at the current 200 pip profit you would make $200 and I would make $2000. per contract that we liquidated.
In our case we are holding 20 contracts. So you would have made 20x$200= $4000 profit
I would make 20×2000 or $40,000 profit. Not bad for a weeks worth of work! I hope this helps your readers.
Thanks
Jim
Lol, I just realized the charts I’m looking at are from July 2011. Duh….
haha funny. Time to fix it or uninstall it.
Hi Rusty,
One day a few years ago I had a very successful trading day. I studied my information then applied them to my chart readings and I pulled the trigger. I set back and marveled at how brilliant I was as I watched my profits soar.
After about an hour I liquidated my position for a nice profit and unbuttoned my shirt to provide my expanding chest some room. I then decided to study what I had done. I went back to my charts and put an overlay on them and much to my surprise I found that I had made my decision based upon a 3 year old chart.
I buttoned my shirt and quietly told no one. I would rather be lucky than good! Every trader has a nightmare story, some more than others but we all have them. It’s just the way it is! ha
Bravo Jim
The Yen still has a long way to go down.
From what I see it is only half way down so far.
The yesterday’s gap-down on Yen was a scary one.
I wish you a dream type of a strait down run.
Hi Bob,
Yes it has been quite a run so far. I’m thinking I might buy some more on the Yen’s temporary gains but I don’t want to get greedy. I did load up on some more last night but like I said I don’t want to get blindsided.
They keep having meetings over meetings in Euro land and it’s really becoming a mess. I see the Peso keeps hoovering around 42.50-60 area. I hope the gains of the dollar helps you fellows over there. I am getting anxious about my return trip to the Philippines. I really look forward to this trip and the possible relocation.
You will have to post some information on your life in your adopted hometown. I find it quite the interest and hope you post some. Yes with your chart skills and my luck we could be the next great fund managers of the Philippines/Ha Ha! Well thanks for the comments and post some info on your hometown we would all enjoy it.
Thanks
Jim
Hi Bob, I think he’s betting on the yen going up? But he said he was long int he dollar. I’m so confused. Maybe that day trader stuff he loves.
Hi Everyone,
Well it’s early morn here in sunny Arizona. Although it hasn’t been so sunny as of late. Contrary to popular belief it does rain every now and then here. But for those of you who have been following our trade, it is sunny and bright on our dollar/yen position. It got kind of turbulent and choppy in yesterday’s trading and one must have conviction of their position to tolerate it. Most can’t.
However we don’t have that problem. The dollar is currently sitting at 78.90 range and it seems to be trying to hold it. That’s a 240 pip move in profit. Now I don’t want to dwell tooooooo much on the money part of this trade as you are better off thinking in terms of pip movement rather than dollar amounts as it can affect your decision making. But I will tell you this much. It is a HUGE amount of money!
Now I have taken some (A lot!) off the table but I am still maintaining a long position. I am also watching for dips and gains I can day trade off of but never losing sight of my long term position. It also allows me to be prepared for any blindsided news or events that could force a move against me. I will also tell you I have options to cover the long term positions I have taken, but that’s another story that I will leave for someone else to tell, as it involves futures and I let my broker place them for me.
But as we approach the 250-300 pip profit range I am watching the market so I don’t get blindsided and weaken my position. If I see that happening I will liquidate my forex positions and let the options take it from there. But if you have been following and perhaps even mimic this trade, you have set yourself up for a very, very Merry Christmas and it’s only Feb!
As we discussed earlier, we thought the Peso would fall in value and it has moved to the 42.80 area pushing 43.00 so those of you who live in the Philippines you have enjoyed a little relief. Hopefully more to come. I would like to comment that I know of some day traders who have been killed in this market by trying to time their trades. Incurring loses while knowing or believing that the dollar would gain in value as we have.
Trading is a personal strategy. We all dance to a different drummer. What works for one, may not work for another. You must come to an understanding with your own style of trading. Not mine, but yours. PalwawanBob,is for an example, an expert on charts. I am not. That doesn’t make me a non-believer, I simply have my own trading skills and I know not to dabble where I do not belong. With that said, he and I may both come to the same conclusions simply by different means. Similar to driving to work. He may take a different route than I, but we both end up at the same location. Trading is the same.
The trade you are experiencing with me is not an everyday event. But trades like this do occur and you must be able to recognize them when they starting to formulate as we have in this case. So, enough for now I hope this is helping the ones who are trying to learn. It is a great way to make a living in Arizona or the Philippines! It should be an interesting trading day.
Good Luck,
Jim
Jim now you told me to forget pips in another thread. haha
The peso fell because of the news of the Euro Zone (EZ) meeting be pushed back. That happens on Monday. Wish I didn’t have to wait for the rest of the world to catch up.
I expect Monday to be a turbulent day for the peso/euro and maybe the dollar. I think it was Friday that better than expected unemployment numbers were out. That pushes stocks up usually but they were mostly flat on Friday if I recall. I need to start watching that a little closer.
I need to try Onada (sp) too. If it is not a temp account, I’ll try it again soon. The last time I tried my PC gave up. I may have to use a different browser. Chrome is having issues lately for some. I thought it was just me. It may be that I’m still on XT.
Soon as I finish my backups, I’ll reformat. LOL Talking about rambling…..
I was about to ramble about other stuff. Just the way my brain works. I let it flow.
Sometimes its great, sometimes its well not so great.
As for Az, better watch out, if the diamond backs don’t get ya, Alice Cooper just might. haha I think I’d like to live in Az. Nice dry air.
I might miss the forest but I’d love to get some desert shots too.
Speaking of which I need to work on pictures soon. Only about 500 more Sinulog photos left to go.
Okay so you have a plan, but you do a little chart chasing too. So where there a key thing that made you think that the dollar was ready to rise on the yen? I know you’ve told me several, I just didn’t expect it to happen so fast. I made about $2500 on USD/JPY trade and I think I bought the dollar to but I don’t recall for sure. I just wish it was real money.
I was thinking how much loosing $500 would set me back right now. Yeah, no new DSLR in my immediate future either. pout.. haha Oh well, things are still on the upside and getting better. Well except for the last five days. Kind of going to squat on me. It will pick up.
PS this was the second time I read this, first time I was just too covered up in issues for anything else to enter my brain I think.
Hello Everyone,
Well it has been a interesting week. It certainly has been a profitable one for us. Our position has gained about another 40 pips or so and seems to be pretty steady at that price. It had some erratic trading during the day but mostly settled down during the overnight trade and gradually begin its climb again. We are closing in on a 300 pip profit margin.
I surpassed the point some tine ago of having any at-risk funds in this trade. Any thing above this point is similar to legalized theft. All my risk capital have been regained and the profits locked in so in simple terms we don’t have any of our own money at risk it’s all the markets money now. Plus if you recall from the last post I did buy some more on the downside which even allowed the ground to swell more in profits. So all in all it has been a very good read of the market.
Because of the weekend and the dangers that are abound both good and bad I will tighten my stops a little so I can sleep well and not worry and come back Sunday and fight another round. But I can honestly say that I am coming to the end of this leveraged trade and most likely I am getting close going to relying on my futures positions to see how far our profits can run. I want to protect my cash position, lock in the profits but still stay in the trade. The combination of options and leveraged trades allow me to do that.
So, the weekend is coming up, my position is pretty stable at the moment. I am going to lock in more profits, tighten my stops to protect myself during the non-trading hours and come back Sunday and fight another day. Sounds like a plan to me! Have a nice weekend everybody.
Good luck and good trading!
Jim
Wow, what a week Jim! Congratulations!
You did so well.
I looked at its chart and concluded that it may rebound from this point so it is a prudent thing to take some profits.
However if it rebounds it will be the right thing to take extra positions.
Never easy, this goddamn trade!
Oh by the way, I am becoming more and more convinced that we will be heading into a hellish deflationary period soon (in 4 to 5 years) or right after the debt bubble burst, so having dollars in your pockets will certainly be good.
Hi Bob,
Bob thanks for your comment. Yes this has been one heck of a ride so far. This is one of those trades that happens about 3-4 times a year and I just about caught this one from the beginning. Last year I accumulated huge gains in my fund. So far the first quarter of this year is shaping up to be one of those record years for my fund.That’s assuming I can keep my nose clean! lol
Your deflationary thoughts are interesting. I have been giving some thoughts along the same lines. The young kid (to me a kid) who is my futures broker has shown me some charts that seem to have the same thoughts as yours. He laughs when he shows them to me as he knows he will have to take me by the hand for explanation. I always compliment him on how pretty they are. ha ha!
I don’t always agree with him but the kid is an expert in option trading. If I tell him what I want to do he formulates the structuring, pricing and placements for me. He’s one of the best I have ever seen at it and I trust him exclusively in structuring my futures. He’s 30 y/o and is building quite a book for himself.
This trade that I am in now is fascinating because not only has it been extremely profitable but I have options layered that could be more profitable than the cash trade over the long haul if the yen keeps falling over the next 18 mos and lord help me if they come in to intervene at the higher level. That would send me to Disneyland! LOL
I look forward to my visit to Cebu to see if the relocation will work. It is a very serious move for me as I give up a lot of infrastructure which I don’t expect in Cebu but I have to have some degree of confidence in their infrastructure to preform for me or I will not be able to relocate.
I don’t want to go back to Manila, it’s just not that inviting and my GF is from there and she wouldn’t go back either. So I guess only time will tell. Everybody on Rusty’s blog has really been helpful with information to ease my research prior to my trip. I want you to know that every time I look at a chart now, I think of your cobra pictures. lol. Have a great weekend!
Thanks
Jim
Hey who shut down the trades……. I’m addicted.
I can’t trade. lol 
Hi Rusty,
Yes, traders are addicts have go thru withdraw symptoms when the weekend comes around! lol
Jim
Well there is always research.
In my case there is much need.
Hi Folks, please post comments not related to the topic in the forum.
Thanks.
WOW! Now this thing has the potential to be BIG!
Link
“…ROME — The Italian police on Friday arrested eight people on charges related to the seizure of $6 trillion in fake United States Treasury bonds, in a mysterious scheme that stretched from Hong Kong to Switzerland to the southern Italian region of Basilicata…”
I never thought this was possible????
Can you imagine 6 TRILLIONS… ????
What the hell is going on…????
Hi Bob,
Yes it’s amazing to read and can you believe that bankrupt Kodak Company missed the band wagon. Look at what they could have done had they just stopped taking photos and making film when with a little software and a great printer they could still be listed. LOL
Thanks
Jim
That should help the value of the dollar a bit. Hmmmm, trying to think through this.
Fake cash harms the dollar. T-bills are virtually the same thing. People pull money out of less liquid assets to buy T-Bills, bad guys throws nice party, buys a jet, buys drugs, pays off some officials around the world, yeah floods system with cash. And each time it changes hands it floods more cash.
Hello guys and gals,
Well it’s Sunday I am looking at my trading screens. Our Yen trade is still holding extremely strong. The spreads are pretty wide as the markets just opened up but they will tighten up as the day goes on. I would be surprised if I were still in the cash trade position of this trade by or before the end of the month.
We have taken a lot of cash off the table and still maintain a solid position, not to mention the call options that were purchased on the initial trade. So all in all we are sitting very pretty. Perhaps I should take a moment and mention a subject that seems to come up more than any. And that is the pip movement. Each pip movement is up or down. Each time it moves it is either for your position or against it. It is money flowing through your trading account.
Now I have in earlier comments explained what a pip is. I also have described that a pip can be of various prices. For the beginner it is perhaps best to describe the workings of a pip movement to playing poker.
I am a weekend poker player. I am good but I don’t think I am any better than the person sitting opposite of me. I find that I am a lousy poker player when the stakes are low. In other words when I am in a big pot game I am extremely good. Why? Because I don’t equate the chips to money. Oh I always know where I stand, however I simply track wins and losses by the amount of chips I have. I don’t equate chips to money until I get to the window and cash them in.
I treat pip movement the same way. By not equating pip movement to money and relating them directly to my trading plan instead, it doesn’t cloud my decision making. In other words it takes the emotion out of money in my decision making process. Most people can not do that, hence they trade with an emotional barrier. Also to a certain extent, as in my high stakes poker playing , I am attracted to the fast moving, big stakes game of the currency markets. Again, why am I better with the higher stakes games of poker and trading?
Mainly because I have a healthy disrespect for money. By not equating chips or pips to money it permits me to make unemotional decisions. They are simply chips or pips to me. A way to count wins and losses. Nothing more , nothing less. No emotional attachment as they are simply an indicator of how my game plan is developing.
As I stated before. Most players and traders can not separate or even distinguish the two. That’s why you need a trading plan. You make your decisions, you develop your strategies and you execute. that’s all. There’s no emotions, you simply trade according to your planned decisions.
I hope this helps,
Jim
I am horrible at poker but then I never played a real game, just kids and we were not even sure who one. Now black jack I’m good at around the kitchen table. haha I’ve never bet on it. I don’t know all the end and outs of splits and insurance (except you almost never want insurance) when playing.
Okay, I’ve heard this emotional detachment thing a lot. It came in the reading material for the trading videos I bought but thought they were a scam so I didn’t watch them. lol I wanted the content for ideas to write about on another site. I suppose I should at least watch the videos but I don’t know when I will have time. I wish I could sell time.. Why? I have none. Guess I need to make my time more valuable.
Okay, so I need to get my eyes off the $$$ and on the pips. That wont be easy. I may even see if I can hide the dollar column.
I have started looking more at pips even though I can’t covert to money if I wanted to. When doing the stop loss and take profits it is essential. 
It forced me to look at all those meaningless zeros out on the right. lol That’s the way I think of zeros, they mean nothing until you put another non-zero number before them. LOL I’m bad about dropping zeros when I write or was an accountant. It was nice that things had to balance. 
Yeah, its hard to sit there when you see those number going down at $500 bucks in 15 seconds and then see them zoom back up and then back down. It is amazing how fast it changes.
I wish I had your screens, mine look the same way now they did Friday night.
I’ve decided that I’m going to close all my screens except for USD/JPY. Then I’m going to open Gold, the stock market windows. FTSE is Japan’s market right? haha I’ll find it. I’ll watch those to gauge how the dollar is doing overall while concentrating on the USD/JPY. Not quite a plan but it is developing into one. It might give me info I can use to make a plan.
The yes is poised to go down. The dollar up. That’s a real good combination. If the stock market keeps doing well though it will fall against the peso for a while, if all other things remain equal. If Greece goes belly up the peso will fall like a hot air balloon on fire!
Hi Rusty,
I wouldn’t put a lot in the beginning on my comments of being unemotional when trading. That will come in time. It’s just another learning step. Like I said, just keep experimenting.I simply want your readers to know how I trade. And play poker! ha,ha. I’m giving all my secrets away here. I hope my poker playing buddies don’t read this as now they will know I have been bluffing all this time! LOL
The one thing you are finally grasping hold of is to keep it simple and uncomplicated. Yes reduce your screen and become specialized in a certain market. Then you can expand. Slowly but surely you are making headway. I hope your readers are also.
You are doing good, stick with it. In the end if you become a successful trader you will have the ability to live and help others in a way most people only dream of. Remember, keep it simple!
Good luck,
jim
I read four article on “Learn Forex Trading” and all four of them mention the same kinds of things you do. Emotional detachment, dedication, and a plan. Seems to be the three things you keep hammering.
Be glad when I can trade. lol I am hoping the CHF position will break even, I think they will if they don’t open much lower. I wonder if they will charge me practice interest. Somehow, I doubt it since they are probably hoping I wont find that out during the practice session.
Good Morning from Arizona!
I woke up this morning expecting our stop losses to be hit. They weren’t which surprised me. The market got close to taking us out of it but it settled down and decided it didn’t want us to leave after all. I still expect to be out of this trade probably by the end of the month at the latest unless some event happens in our favor.
That’s not to say I don’t maintain the belief that the dollar will rise against the yen for the rest of the year. I do and it will. It’s just on a leverage trade it would be difficult to time the ups and downs of the move and that’s why I bought options in the beginning. So I could pay for them upfront and let them ride out the ups and downs. As for now though we have taken enough profit out of our leverage trade to accumulate some 62% returns out of this trade.
For those who may just be learning and without getting in ROI explanations(return on investment)and without calculating the leverage involved(if I did that the numbers get in the hundreds of percent)I am simply going to explain it this way. For every $1000.00 invested in our cash trade you would have earned approx. $620.00. So, again in simple terms if you started out with an investment fund of $10,000, your account would now read $16,200.00. That is a great return over the year for a fund to do. But we have accomplished that return in less than 3 weeks! That’s why currency funds are so popular with the wealthy. The results can return gains of staggering amounts.
Now then, after saying all that, you can lose a staggering amount also. But I think we have shown in this trade that with proper research and a money management plan you can in fact garner such returns as the wealthy. Without getting too political but it needs to be said, the government doesn’t want the normal investor dabbling around in these often offshore funds. They can’t keep the money within their tax jurisdiction even though we pay taxes no matter where we are in the world.
But they don’t want the “little guy” messing around with offshore funds so they have created disclosure laws and investor suitability statements that make it all but impossible to purchase any of these currency funds. That is why there was such an explosion of retail currency trading known as the forex market. It allows people like you and me to participate in this lucrative market. You can start small or if you have the funds you can trade big. It’s simply your opportunity to garner returns such as the ones we have accumulated on this trade.
Well, our trade seems to be holding at the 79.50 level. It got as high as 80.00 where I liquidated some more profits but we have since gave back about 50 pips. We will keep an eye out and see if our stops get hit at the 79.30 level. If not then we will continue with the trade and hope for the best. But it has been a great ride on this trade and with 62% returns already bagged we still may not be through. It’s an amazing game!
For those in the Philippines the Peso seems to be caught in a range trading area of 42.50-42.70 area. I believe that there will be a breakout of that range in the coming weeks. You may get caught in a move that garners gains for the Dollar but you may lose all the gains to the increase in commodities and especially oil prices. Oil as it stands right now is trying to push $106.00. As we mentioned in a earlier comment I indicated that I believed oil was going to be a major set-back for the Philippines this year. It looks to be forming in that direction.
So guys, hang on to your dollars it’s going to be a bumpy ride. Yes, it is an amazing game!
Good luck
Jim
Those rising oil prices will make it harder for the US government to weaken the dollar more. Iran moving over the weakened to cut off oil to France and England has sent oil prices up today. As of a few hours ago, no telling what has happened since then. Doesn’t take long for things to change. Though I doubt a lot of change has occurred in that time frame.
I don’t understand how you can be long in the dollar over such a long period of time in the USD/JPY. Wait, yes I do. I just looked at another chart.
As I watch that market in my small forex chart in the platform where my forex practice account is I see these minute by minute changes. I can see now I was not exercising discipline. Because of the last three weeks the dollar has moved upward consistently. You had a bit of a windfall last week, now that I know that Japan is engaging in quantitative easing and are intentionally trying to weaken the yen all one has to do is hope the dollar does well. If not, find another depressed currency that is set to rise and invest in it. At some point, the euro will stabilize. You know, honestly I’ve been dreading that.
Now I see a way to be in a good position no matter what it does. If it begins to do well, I could buy Euro/JPY. While I want to be patriotic and root for the dollar, a strong dollar is not always good for the economy. Over the last few days, I’ve realized how some one can put themselves in a better position via the forex market no matter which way the currency in your homeland is moving. With parity pricing (a concept I’m struggling with but you keep alluding two without using the words) one can at least tread water during inflationary times. Light bulbs are going off all over. Now to tie it all together and to figure out when to take a position. Take that position at the right time and you’ll do a lot better than tread water.
Jim, I made over 100% today. I put in a whopping $10 this morning of play money and came out with $22 or $12 profit. Technically that’s not a 100% gain because the numbers people see in the press are usually annualized. So to compare myself with the rest of the world, I would have to do the same, I think. That means basically I need to divide that by 365.
I also traded the wrong way in the beginning due to my not having enough information and lost about $6 to start off with. I’m not at all worried about the number of dollars, I’m looking at percent of gain. Invest more, make more. Invest more could loose more. I was trying to act like i would if I had less cash, the real world for me.
I have a chart to add but I can’t do it inside this comment at the moment. I’ll have to come back and do that.
I didn’t realize it had been so long since I wrote an article here. I must do better than that!
This chart shows the USD/JPY movement over the last thirty days. From Google Finance:
Hi Rusty,
Your questioning of economics are becoming more in tune with what you are experiencing. That’s great!. As it shows your reflection of thought in your position taking. I keep telling everybody this is a thought process, a different way of looking at things, globalization, economics, commodities things that affect the world.
Yes you are right, keep your trading money in real terms. If you have to start small then so be it. $10.00 here and $10.00 there adds up to real money at the end of the year. Stick with it, you are making great headway!
I can probably do more than $10
I didn’t know what my position would be. I selected .01 of one lot. Then I found out one lot is 1000 of the base currency. So that came out to $10. 
They don’t have a 1% it goes form .05 to 1. $100 would be a realistic amount for me with and account of $500 in the next few months. I’d feel better about $1000 and $100 so I may start out in the $50 range. Will have to see how things go.
I’m beginning to get the big head here. I’m beginning to think I just might have the gift. I might be benefiting from that fine education I got too.
And I’m sure I’m benefiting from your presence. Only time will tell me if it is dumb luck or I’m starting to make some plans and doing well from it.
I think my plans are good. but only time will tell. I’m about to go update my forum post on this matter. What I tried to do is working, for now.
Hi Rusty,
Wax on. Wax off. lol
jim
Good day everyone,
After reading Rusty’s comments above(both)he brings forth a simple but excellent view of the trade you have been following with me. I feel like I am “Carnac the Magnificent”! For those of you who are not old enough to remember Johnny Carson’s skits as he played Carnac, he was always introduced by Ed, his side kick in the same manner.
“And now the great seer, soothsayer, sage and former financial adviser to the Greek government, Carnac the Magnificent.”
Ed would then continue as follows:
“I hold in my hand the envelopes. As a child of four can plainly see, these envelopes have been hermetically sealed. They’ve been kept in a #2 mayonnaise jar on Funk and Wagnall’s porch since noon today. No one knows the contents of these envelopes, but you, in your borderline divine and mystical way, will ascertain the answers having never before seen the questions.”
Rusty’s questions and comments but certainly his chart makes me feel like “Carnac”! LOL The chart that Rusty has posted displays how much profit we have taken out of this trade. When you look at the chart let your eyes gravitate towards where the line is a its lowest point. Now just a hair above that low point is when we sold the Yen.(meaning we want the line to go up and up and…) And now look at that highest point and that is where were are currently at. Even Carnac would have been impressed.lol
Well another overnight position has left us in the game. The market never really got close to hitting our stops so I guess it is trying to give us more profits. lol But it is providing me signs that the market is trying to determine what in the world is going on. The dollar/yen is starting to range trade . The indications of two immediate items. First the market has gone about as far as it can go on jawboning. In other words the Japanese central bank as you will recall hasn’t intervened in the market, they have simply talked the yen into submission. If they want the yen to fall further it is going to take one of two things to occur.
They will have to intervene or an economic event will have to take place. Their talking just ain’t going to cut it from this point on. So it is confirming that we are correct that this trade has almost come to it end. As I said before I thought we would be out of the trade by the end of the month or before. I still believe that unless one of the two events described happen sooner.
Now here is where most traders get into trouble. They enter the market at this point. As you can clearly see they risk entering it at the top of the move. It is financial suicide. Position taking at this point is dangerous. If one were to trade at this level you would have to day trade it rather than position trade as we have the last two weeks. So our position has not changed. We will liquidate some more and take more profits when the market spikes and slowly wind down our position. We will leave a little on the table to perhaps catch a new ride but not much in case it takes a move downward.
It is near time to allow my options to ride the rest of the wave. They have already been bought and paid for and some have already seen profitable action and I believe in the end they will be more profitable than our cash trade. It has been a great ride and a profitable one. As I wind down this position I will probably take a 2-3 week vacation. Clear my head, enjoy life and take my loved one anywhere she wants to go. Can you believe she wants to go to Nashville, Tn. and Gulfport Ms. She has learned to two step and wants to try her moves with the locals. lol Only in America!
Rusty has started a forum on his trading experiences as he goes it will make for great reading, please following him in the forum section and lend support and comments. It is a great way to learn and will be fun to read how he progresses.
The Peso is still range trading not much movement. It’s simply waiting for an event also to make it move. The price of oil may be it. Also there were new import/export figure I found indicating the combination of Hong Kong and China is approaching a 1/4 of all exports of the Philippines. That’s signaling what I have indicated in other forums that the footprint of America is leaving and being replaced. I wasn’t sure who or what the replacement was going to be or even be like, but I think with this new information it is rather clear. It is China. There’s good and bad in that relationship. I think it in the long run it could be very intrusive as I have already seen some of the destructive fallout from the economic relationship. But that’s another story for another time and “Carnac” will have to think more about what’s in that envelope.
Thanks for following, I have enjoyed every post and comment.
Good luck and good trading,
Jim
To me, 2 weeks is day trading.
I guess not in the forex. I’m having trouble not thinking about stocks.
Day trading is exactly what I’m doing.
Jim, I’ve seen multiple reports that the central bank of Japan as started quantitative easing. Are you aware of that, have that not actually started it but only talking about it? The difference could be important. I’m under the impression they have and I did get in today. I was reluctant because I noticed less volatility. I’m trying to just nip and tuck at the edges.
The market isn’t falling enough now though for my pending orders to get executed.
Just a few days ago, I could buy dollars and see a profit within a few hours. Now, I don’t see anything that makes me want to get in. I did get in mostly because I’m under the impression the bank did start QE in Japan. But I’ve lost 53 points. I just lowered my take profit tot he lowest point I could, until I find that out for sure.
Hi Rusty,
They have been QE for the last 10 years. Japan is doing what Japan does. They trash talk the market, then they throw an intervention in, then they trash talk the market, then the talk up the market, then they leak it to the newspaper so they can talk up the market.
But you can only talk so much before the traders stop believing in all your garbage. Japan will have to intervene or make some serious policy changes to assure the market they are serious about creating a weaker yen. Noticed I said “creating”. That’s all their doing is creating a weaker yen at this point. No policy change, no intervention no nothing. Simply talk.
They have talked their way out of intervention territory so that saves them a few billion and now they will try to talk their way to another level. When that doesn’t work the traders will sale dollars and create a stronger yen. Then the game starts over. The talk, the intervention, more talk, more leaking.
They so far have talked their way to over Y/80.0 that’s a pretty good move for just plain old talk. Be careful, it is not a time to position play the yen. That move has already gone by. If you are going to trade it, day trade only, do not leave over night positions you could really get into a lot of trouble. Look for serious change at this point. When recognized then you can put short to medium positions on like this last one I did. Patience my friend.
good luck,
Jim
I don’t now if they actually did it or not. The story can be found here: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-japan-surprises-with-fresh-easing-2012-02-14
Yea, I know they intervened twice last year. Looked at the charts for last year and though I didn’t look it up, it was easy to see something drastic happen those two times.
So if the Bank of Japan says they will increase asset purchases of 10 trillion I shouldn’t believe them? That’s what the article says.
The dollar to fell to 79 yesterday then rose to 81! Wow. I ‘m sitting on the sidelines. If I get chance to watch it closely Monday, I’ll make a quick trade on fall or rise if there is huge change. Otherwise, I’ll stay out as if it were real money.
Yes, and I thought you had a crystal ball when I saw that chart knowing when you bought and started getting out.
Dollar is dropping like a rock right now. My pending order just executed. Oh no.
Hi Rusty,
Yes it was a great call on this trade. I am now looking at the Euro, Canadian, and certainly still the yen since I have my options working. I have options on the yen extended out over the next 18 mos.so I am covered for a weak yen for a long time. Now I am on to researching and looking for other trades to take while I am still day trading with a little overnight stuff but no short to medium trades yet.
The euro looks like a possibility but no clear position yet. I missed the euro/yen move. It was big but I decided to concentrate on my dollar/yen trade instead. There could be a short dollar/yen position but it would be a little nervy, but it would pay off well. Same with pound/euro.
I will have to see more direction from the japan central bank before I moved in that direction but it is shaping up to be tested without follow through from their central bank.Traders at some point are going to force Japan’s central bank to show their cards. If they don’t I am going to short the dollar. But until that time I will simply day trade and look for signs. I think Canada is shaping up for a play also. It’s tied to oil and I just keep watching. That could be a solid payoff if it decides to move. It’s more an event move than anything else.
Well just thinking out loud,
JIm
How will we know the BOJ is really doing anything? If I can’t believe what they say, then I think I’ll look for another currency. I’m suddenly feeling rather unsure about how to see the yen.
Hi Jim
Here is one of my $USD analysis from July of last year 2011.
There is a precision date, 27th of Jan 2016… write it down!
When we will be on 27th of January in 2016 you may remember me.
On that particular date the dollar value will be at 75.00 for the last time.
What I want to show you here is the power of advanced technical analysis.
Keep this chart, it will help you.
Bob,
Thank you for your comments. I am making copies of your chart as I type. I will review and study it. It has always been fascinating to for me to explore a chart presentation like you have posted. Rusty’s readers should also take note. As previously posted before Bob is the expert on charts. He is teaching me as I go along whereas I perhaps have shown you the more fundamental side of trading.
There are many ways to trade. I lean towards a 80/20 fundamental side but I will be the first to admit I miss trades that a tech see way before I do. So make a copy of Bob’s chart and use it as a study guide and reference point. I certainly will.
Thank you,
Bob
Hi Gang,
I hope everyone is well and safe. Well this market has become the energize bunny. It just keeps going and going and ……..It has broken through the 80.0 level which I thought would have put up a bigger resistance than it did. (I probably should have had one of Bob’s charts as it may have pointed that out)However it did finally breakthrough the 80.0 level and I managed to take more profits at the 80.40 level. So it is still truckin along and holding steady in the 80.30 area.
I won’t get into the profit margins(obscene)that have been made but some of my option money started to kick in just above the 80.10 range. So here is the game plan. I have about 10% of the original investment still on the table. I have a 100% of my options in play. I will let the options run take profits on my cash trade when I catch another uptick move and liquidate before the end of the month. Then as I said before I and Gwen are going to go on vacation for a couple/three weeks. It’s her bonus for putting up with my irregular hours.
By the way, Gwen who has just started trading her own live account, mostly by mimic, has earned about 20% on her small fund this year! She has become quiet the student and it’s too late to turn back now. She has seen the way money is made. The Philippines is in big trouble when she comes back on her next visit. I have created a monster!/ha
For those who may have interest I put a post on Rusty’s forum on the description of hardware I use to trade with so you may want to jump over there to take a look. So for now I am just snoopying around for another trade possibility after I exist this one. Vacation or no vacation, Ipads,Ipods,Iphones,notebooks and other wonderful gizmos keep me in the game. I think it was Jack in the Batman movie who said, “Where does he get all those wonderful toys?” Ha Ha, Have a good one.
Good luck
Jim
And then it went through 81!’
I’m thinking about becoming female and sitting in your lap so you’ll tell me which buttons to push on my pc. lol
Hello readers or (reader) or is it just me and Rusty? lol
Well gang it is the end of the week or close to it. We made decent money again in overnight trading. It is still range trading although the range is larger it is a good time to hit and run with profits.(day trading)When I reference day trading I simply mean no overnight positioning. You can day trade 30 seconds/1 minute/1 hour or how ever long or greedy you get.
But day trading does not mean overnight positions unless you intend to be up all night and day watching it.(believe me I have done that more times than I care to remember)The big money is in positioning trades of short to medium trade placements (3-30 days). It is a different type of trade. It is one that takes complete confidence. It is not one for guess work and praying. (Although you will probably do a lot of that anyway) no, 3-30 day plays take a confidence and the ability to peek into the future.(Carnac)Luck has nothing to do with positioning plays. Although you always want to be lucky too.
Position trading takes a confidence that you can place a trade, turn off your computer, go on a 30 day cruise, come back and find your account not destroyed. (That’s why you take the cruise, as it may be your last one)It takes guts. It takes confidence and it takes moxie. All of which comes with your expertise on your choice of currency. I have posted this comment in other forums I should post it here also.
After you learn how the bells and whistles and all the neat things your platform can do, there is nothing and I mean NOTHING that is more important than to become an expert on the currency you are trading. NOTHING! Now hear me when I ROAR! It is the single most important thing you can do when trading. You must know what affects it’s movements. It is a living, breathing animal that has the ability to be friend or foe. You must know what makes it tick. Everything! For those who deny this part of trading they are in for a very expensive learning process. (That is a polite way of saying you are going to lose all your money) There are no shortcuts. It has to be done. There is no way around the subject.
So pick you a currency perhaps one you our familiar with. Perhaps one you used on vacation or just like the country or because your mommy told you so, it doesn’t matter just become an expert on that currency. Why you may ask? Profits you say? No. Because you will recognize when you are wrong! Let me say that again. By becoming an expert on your currency and knowing what makes it tick allows you to recognize when something is wrong.
By this recognition ability you will enhance your ability to make profits whether your currency goes up or down but it provides you the singular most important thing a trader can possess and that is to recognize when you have made a bad trade/decision. To recognize you are wrong. Profits take care of themselves. Losses take care of your account. To recognize quickly when you are wrong will save your trading life. Most people think in terms of profits. You must think in terms of survival. Becoming intimate with your currency and knowing every little whims, aches and details about your currency is the only way to accomplish this all important expertise. DO NOT IGNORE THIS SCRIPTURE!
Now on to oil and the Peso. Oil keeps trying to push the 106 level and the peso keeps trying to push the 43 level. Both will probably occur. Japan is still jaw boning although they did add some paper with their jabber out of their central bank meeting. But basically they are still jawboning trying to deflate the yen. Greece is, well Greece is still there. Germany has no President. France is mudslinging over their upcoming elections. Syria is exploding. Israel is saber rattling. Iran is suffocating. Koreans are the new businessman of the Philippines while China keeps encroaching and the dollar keeps rising.
India is an economic explosion. China’s factories are now in Cambodia. Australia is the new hub for US marines. And last but not least. I stood the barb wire fence of the cold war as a young man. Ah the cold war, the good ol’ days. They are gone forever. Or are they? There seems to be a new cold war brewing. It has moved over the years from Europe to what is called the South China Seas. You know, the one that lies right outside your doorstep in the Philippines. Yes that one. There’s no barbwire but believe me it is there and it s starting to surround the Philippines. This new cold war brewing will affect the lives of all Philippine people and the expats who live their in the coming future.
It is 80 degrees in Phoenix today. Clear skies and a great day for golf. I am still not healed enough from my open heart surgery I had so I can’t play just yet but I am going to Tucson instead to watch Tiger Woods play in another head to head matchplay event. It should be exciting. Gwen is spending some of her new found fortune out of her trading account before we leave. Maybe she is buying me a surprise gift? Nahhhhhhh! Have a great day in the Philippines.
Later,
Jim
We are not the only ones but most read without every entering a comment.
Guess, I’ll keep watching the yen and dollar. The dollar is historically low and the yen historically high gotta be profits there.
Hello to the islands,
Tiger lost. He couldn’t putt. I think I jinked him. Even though Tiger lost, we won big time , again. Overnight trading hit both my options and what little we left on the cash table. The dollar/yen is fast approaching the 81.00 level and climbing. The cash trade has been extremely successful but my option trades that were hit last night will become even more successful.
As I posted earlier I have options that could pay out over the next 18 mos. on one trade position! Gwen was going to look for a younger man but even she knows the value of these options! She says I don’t have to clean the house anymore which I thought was nice of her since she was going to go back to that chore. But she informed me that the options could pay for maid service now. I am doomed!
Well oil ran almost directly northward to the 108-109 area. There’s really know sense in it as I think the fundamentals are strong to support a lower price but I think the techs have their hands in it now and are pushing the price up. If an event comes along at this point we could reach 150 overnight. So cross your fingers and hope that doesn’t happen. Gas is approaching 5-6 bucks a gallon. That’s good and bad. The bad is that’s a lot of money. The good is it may finally convince the American public to change their wasteful habits. Only time will tell.
Lets see, what else is going on? It’s the weekend! It’s a perfect 80 degrees here in Phoenix again. We are getting ready to go on vacation. We try to go some where every 90 days for a couple of weeks. I let Gwen do the choosing. Even though she has been in the states foe some time it is always a joy for me to be able to travel and enjoy this large country of ours with her. I have traveled extensively throughout the world but she makes traveling fun and interesting. Seeing her eyes get big as we crossed the golden gate bridge at night and see the city lights of the city by the bay for the first time was thrilling for her but even more for me to see her amazement.
She has taught me a lot. All of which I use in trading except the house cleaning part! Patience. Curiosity. Thought. Kindness. Friendship. New languages. Youth. Love and so much more. It has been a joy for me to introduce her to trading the markets. She is a fast learner, a serious student and is developing her own style of trading. Her software setup has been developed just as the “Jeepney” was thrown together. But she understands it and it works for her. Which is the point that I stress to all new traders.
You have experienced this month a very, very successful trade with me. Both mentally and financially. But trading is a personal decision. You must find your own method of trading. What works for me is obviously very successful but it may not work for you. You must find your own way. Just like Gwen and her jeepney style setup. She has taken the instructions from me and developed her own style, her own way of sorting it out. Will she become a successful investor without me around. Yes she is on the right track. It is called “SELF”.
So my friends, my babbling about trading is soon coming to an end.(Ok, knock it off! I can hear some of you clapping! ha) Yes I feel great about my read on the market but I mostly feel excitement about what lays in store for the next trade. The world is full of trading opportunities. I feel like Marco Polo looking for the silk road. I have traded for over 20 “dog” years now. That’s a very long survival rate in this business. But looking back over the last month and sharing this trading experience with you, it was simply my goal to excite you into self-determination. To open the horizon of trading and the possibilities that rise with it. I hope you have enjoyed it and take something of value from our chats, I know I have.
There is a young lady who was rescued from the slums of Manila not long ago. She is now developing a Jeepney style of trading. Will she succeed? I think so. And if a little girl from the slums of Manila can become a successful trader I would bet, that you could too.
Have a great weekend!
Jim
The president has a battle brewing with a couple of oil men. They are on his enemies list and they have been complaining. Today I got an email from “him” and he shed some light on this. I didn’t read it all though. Maybe I should.
He seems to be saying the same thing Bill O’riely is if you can imagine that. Well in a way. Bill is saying the price is rising due to speculation. The president is saying these brothers in the mid west are pushing the price of oil up in hopes of wrecking the American economy.
Wow, that’s pretty strong! I’m a little surprised he has called them out on it. And did it by name. Just a matter of time before Fox News figures out a way to support higher oil prices and bring these two guys in and praise them. Oh wait, they will pretend they don’t know. What am I saying. I’m going to start following that story more closely. I think I deleted that email. Don’t have time to read it. I wish I had now.
Hi Rusty,
Yours is a very interesting comment. I have not seen any of the news regarding the Prez’s comments or O’Riely’s for that matter. However I have worked at the U.S. Senate Investigating Committees on oil and gas frauds. I suspect without knowing, it is the same two brothers.
Yes Bill beats the same drum when oil prices spike. He has for years and I suppose it makes for good t.v. The Prez on the other hand should be careful not to turn his administration into a reality television program. But he is no different than Bill, both will say whatever attracts a crowd.
Governments and news programs have always dissed rising prices and collapsed stock prices on speculators. One covers their tracks while the other sales advertising. Nothing new there. But what is interesting is the direct finger pointing he has made, as you describe.
It indicates the crying of a lost man. The leader of the free world trying to get re-elected on the back of finger pointing accusations is a another low point of this administration.
If he knows that, then do something about it. But he doesn’t have any proof, he can’t prove it, so he simply points his finger. Besides if he had any proof I doubt his Att. General is smart enough to prosecute a case of that magnitude against a couple of brothers. I have been there done that and it was probably the same two brothers.What a joke!
It did seem a little desperate to me too. And I’m actually a supporter.
I dug up the email he didn’t say much more than I read. I wish he had. It was a fund raising email, asking for only a dollar or more.
Here is the part that referenced the bothers.
[blockquote]In just about 24 hours, Mitt Romney is headed to a hotel ballroom to give a speech sponsored by Americans for Prosperity, a front group founded and funded by the Koch brothers.
Those are the same Koch brothers whose business model is to make millions by jacking up prices at the pump, and who have bankrolled Tea Party extremism and committed $200 million to try to destroy President Obama before Election Day.[/blockquote]
I think the president is right. He won’t come right out and say it. The Republicans are more than willing to destroy the economy to get him out of office if they THINK they can do it without it reflecting upon themselves. I think they misjudge the American people. I think the swing voter are fully aware of this. I was aware of it before the president started alluding to it. I know many will never vote for a democrat just as I find it difficult to vote for most republican. I must say, I saw an interview with Gov. Christi (sp) the other night and was very impressed with the man. I don’t know anything about his positions but as a man I could vote for him. Too bad he was unable to run. I thought I’d vote for McCain, was looking for the opportunity, then he made that ridiculous transformation during the campaign and he turned a long time supporter into someone appalled. Now he’s just a grumpy old man. I find it so sad as he was a wonderful man and as bill would say, a patriot! I still deeply admire his convictions as a young man. But this is better for the forum.
Well those are the guys the president is referring to. They claim total ignorance of why the president would dislike them so much. They are perfect angels. I think not.
It also doesn’t look so desperate now that I took a closer look. If he had given specifics then it might. He’s opened the can of worms though. I haven’t had the TV on today, I wonder if Fox has jumped all over it yet. I hope they do but I doubt they will. The president wouldn’t do this if he wasn’t prepared. I think its bait. He’s probably looking the chance to add more fuel to this “the republicans will hurt you to hurt me” argument as I think it is his best chance for re-election. 
That and the economy improving. No president has lost re-election when unemployment is going down. No preside has won re-election when unemployment is going up. If the numbers rise again consistently, he has good reason to be desperate and good for him for taking bold moves as that is the only thing that will save him.
He was a bit naive about working with republicans. He did give it a good effort but he can forget it.
Yes it is a curious accusation he has made. It works well into his class warfare platform pitting the little guy against the big guy. The bros. and oil go together quite nicely. They are also the country’s largest private industry and one of the biggest employers.
Here is a reference to the Prez’s comment by Koch Industries.
“It is false that our “business model is to make millions by jacking up prices at the pump.” Our business vision begins and ends with value creation — real, long-term value for customers and for society. We own no gasoline stations and the part of our business you allude to, oil and gas refining, actually lowers the price of gasoline by increasing supply.
Either you simply misunderstand the way commodities markets work or you are misleading your supporters and the rest of the American people.”
Having included that in my comment, I am not a big fan of Koch Industries. But they are for reasons other than what the Prez says. That is simply politics.
On the other hand if the Prez actually believes his statement, then Koch Industries is correct, the Prez doesn’t know squat about the commodities markets.
Sitting aside the differences I have with the two Bros; they employ approximately a 1/4 of a million people. Perhaps more than all of Obama’s job creation. lol I don’t personally like the two bros business practices but I don’t like the president’s either as he simply doesn’t have one. If he is confused about what Koch Industries actually does he and his handlers should simply go to their home page.
To borrow upon, “I know Koch Industries, I know them well and when it comes to creating jobs, The President is no Koch Industry, he is simply a neighborhood activist.
just a thought,
They don’t strike me as trustworthy at all. That statement they released is a crock. Of course they want prices higher and they can affect it and any idiot knows that. Now what they are doing, I don’t know.
They have fixed cost and if they cut back supply it will cost them revenue. They have deep pockets though, I’m sure they could handle it. They are not publicly traded right? If they are, hurting profits to make a political stand could be painful. I doubt the are public.
No, I doubt the president has much experience with commodities, but I don’t now. He is a self made man too. He’s filthy rich and he didn’t get there by being stupid. You know, I’ve never read his books but they say he’s an excellent writer. I’m too cheap to buy one. LOL Perhaps, I’ll buy a kindle version but I have thousands of free stuff on my kindle and I haven’t picked it up in months. I was reading War and Peace. I should get back to it. Lately, I’ve been working until I drop. I have a goal and I intend to meet it. Looks iffy though. haha
One thing is sure, he’s got people advising him that do know commodities.
Jim it does seem a cold war may be getting stronger with China. Funny you bring it up on the same day that something made me think the same thing. I don’t recall what it was.
Hi Rusty,
Yes if there is one brewing, it has moved from land to sea. The South China Sea. All is peaceful with the U.S. including the U.S. stance not to interfere with water disputes between China and the countries who claim rights, including the Philippines. I believe the U.S. will also look the other way on many encroachments of some of those claims.
What the U.S. won’t idly sit by and watch is, the constriction of free lane passage of the South China Seas. All else is an after thought. The U.S. will protect the rights of passage for our military vessels but the skirmishes getting ready to happen between the Philippines, China and others is going to be their problem.
Let’s hope calm minds prevail.
Jim
Hello Philippines and beyond,
I didn’t check the weather in Cebu this morning, although I suspect it is like Arizona’s. Beautiful as usual. Well the dollar/yen stayed firmly above 81.00 at the closing of the markets. There are some interesting things happening in the world.
Oil. That seems to be a favorite topic of news and politicians. Crude is up and politicians become crude. There has always been a lot of bantering about Hillary running for President someday. I don’t believe that will happen. Why you may ask? Well for one, as Secretary of State if you notice she is never home. She is always flying off to some far away land, meeting Premiers, President, Dictators etc, etc. Now some would argue that is her job. I wouldn’t debate that.
But stop and think about it for a minute and think about what she would do with all that information she has gathered on our tax dollars. What will she do with it, where would she go? What position would she desire? And most importantly is, what employment position is best suited for all that global insight and information on friends, enemies, countries and people.
Well having worked in Washington D.C., the last place you want to be is in the White House with that kind of information. It is of no use. You know all, but can’t implement without political chaos. No, she does not want that stalemate. She wants real power. Real influence. Bigger than the Oval office. She has her eye on the World Bank! It is a place where global court will be held at in the future and she wants to be the judge and jury.
Now I know, there will be some who will cringe on both sides of the aisle but it is a real possibility that is where she is heading. It is the logical leap for someone who thinks power. The future is going to be determined by global financing and world courts. Where else would China and the U.S. bring conflict without battle to. No, it is the ultimate power move for Hillary.
Can she get it? Of course, the world would welcome her. Who would abstain? She knows everybody, she’s been everywhere. She knows the game. And from that new worldly throne she can rule and oversee all the little people and governments! Just something to think about before the currency markets open tomorrow.
Just a thought,
Jim
No, she wont run. As I understand it when I caught the tail end of an interview, she intends to step down after the election. Did something change?
Hillary looks tired. She’s been working her butt off, or so it seems. I think she really wants that rest. The world bank huh? I don’t know what makes you go there. I neither cringe nor am I joyful. Whatever happens with currency, I’m neutral now. Well as soon as I become a real investor. It matters not which way it moves to me. I know one can make money off of either way. I now believe I can do just that. I will continue with my practice accounts for hopefully at least two months. It is getting hard already though. I’m making small trades and seeing big returns. I’m still uncertain how much these lots are that I’m buying though. Now that I’m on Onada’s system though, I can ask the traders there. I wouldn’t trade through ForexYard if they paid me as I don’t trust them.
Hi Rusty,
No I don’t mean right away I just mean that’s where she will end up at. It keeps here in New York, provides her a power base and certifies her as part of the elite. She’s wanted that ever since they left the White House.
Not bad for a girl by way of Arkansas who probably should have at least been disbarred and perhaps should have gone to jail for the fiasco in her Little Rock law firm. My, how short the public memories. Yes I think she will eventually be named the head of the World Bank.
Hello to all of Rusty’s traders,
Well a another week of trading is about to begin. It’s a funny thing about having the ability to trade the currency markets as a profession. It is stressful. It is boring. It is exciting. It stimulates the mind. It is lucrative. It is home based. It is global and it is fun. I touched upon this in an earlier comment and would like to touch upon it again. It is extremely important.
Gwen and I met later on in my profession and my life. lol I have traded for many years so she had the luxury of not having to experience the learning curve that I went through. Or living through it as most partners cannot tolerate it. So here is the scoop on learning how to trade.
If done correctly, you must change your thinking. This is not a software game. It is a thinking game. A mind process. That’s not to say you don’t use software, you can use as much as you want, lord knows it’s out there. No, trading is the ability to think. Think differently. I see things you don’t see. I see things that others only see after the fact. Like the trade you have been following with me. Both make me very successful. You must be able to think in terms of relationships. No, not that kind of relationship!lol But relationships in the way that creates new meaning, new thought, new dimensions.
By creating new relationships you can begin to form questions that lead you to conduct scenarios on your trade. Hence providing you with insight and reasoning. For example; I don’t go to the movies. I really enjoy the movies but I don’t go. I only go to see how quick I can determined the ending. After that it is sheer boredom. I sit down, analysis the subject, the cast, the plot, form scenarios, watch their body language and listen to their role and whola! I have the ending. All within 3-5 minutes of each movie. It’s time to leave. So Gwen doesn’t take me to the movies with her anymore. The point being?
I have no qualms in saying that I think differently then you. None. Because I know that I do. You know how you have been in a discussion with someone and you have finished their sentence for them. It’s aggravating for both sides. That’s the way I am in trading. In business and investments. In everyday life on almost any subject under the sun. I already know the end of the conversation. The end of the movie.
That’s the way you must become with trading. To amass that ability is to change your personality, your friends, your lifestyle and yes perhaps even your partner. Actually you won’t have to change your partner they will do that for you if you don’t temper your learning curve. That’s why you should trade and learn on a practice account. People believe their practice account is to learn how to trade. It is not. That only comes with real money.
Your practice account permits you to experience what I have just described. To see things in a different light. To see how or if there is any changes to your personal life. To experiment with thought. If one is simply using their practice account to learn how to trade, just go out and buy a off the shelf trading product and save yourself the pain of trading. You won’t have a trading account anyway when the markets are through with you and your prized get rich quick software.
Does it sound a little off beaten and harsh. It is. And it gets worse. But it also gets better. A lot better. Most never reach the getting better part. Not to mention the whole lot better portion. But there is a pot of gold that awaits the one who strives to become a trader. My comments are on currency trading. But my ability now permits me to slide into other markets that have nothing to do with the daily grind of trading currencies. I am successful at those also.
Am I right all the time? Of course not. But in trading you don’t have to be, to be successful. But the things you do have to be is: Decisive. Opinionated. Curious and questioning until you find the end of the movie. As aggravating as it seems, you must become an expert on finishing someone else’s conversation!
Good Luck and good trading!
Jim
Hi Traders,
Well let me see, it’s about 3pm in Arizona and the markets are starting to see the margins get a little tighter. It takes awhile for the margins to tighten up unless there is an event that triggers a lot of buying and selling. Which didn’t happen over the weekend.
I am watching the dollar /yen again. I believe if the Yen touches the low 80.0 area I might be a seller of the yen. Not too big just enough to get a feel for the market. So keep an eye out for the low 80.0 range. If there is a quick move to the low 80.0 and below levels I would stand aside and watch till we can see the end result. It would seem to be an easy way to make a quick buck by buying at that point but it’s too dangerous, to many things can go wrong. So if it happens just wait and see where our next entering position may come.
Same position if the dollar makes a sharp move up I would take a wait and see attitude also. The Canadian dollar has made a decent move, there may be more to come. I am keeping an eye on that also. The Euro, I am staying away from there is just too many variables to trade. A person could make a lot of money if right but could take a severe beating if wrong on the Euro. Best to watch the game from the sidelines for a entry level.
So I am sitting on the sidelines watching and waiting. The Peso has moved towards the 43.0 level. I think its a foregone conclusion it will reach that area. A stronger dollar for you guys who live there in Cebu. Hooray! When the markets open tomorrow I will be watching the oil trading. With the wrong turn in world politics, oil could spike in an hour. Again I am just watching at this point.
Since I am sitting on the sidelines and just watching a lot, let me say at this point that just because I am siting on the sidelines I have made a trading decision not to participate. That is a trading decision. Trading is a lot like robbing a bank. Let me provide an example.
Let’s say we want to rob a bank. There are two ways to do that. One we could go in and hold it up(risk) or two we could stand outside the bank’s doors and wait for people to drop money on the sidewalk.(conservative) That is basically how I trade. I don’t risk robbing the bank per se I would rather stand outside and wait for people simply to drop their money. And believe me they do.
I have three accounts. One is to trade pick up money the other traders throw on the ground. The second, is for risk, rob the bank type trades. I don’t risk much in that account and I expect to lose all of it. And the third account is a practice account. I experiment with trades. Just analysis new and creative thoughts and trades.
There are many ways to trade. But when it comes right down to it, it is simply a management of risk. Risk Capital Management. If you can’t control risk you are doomed for death in this business. And just because you are not trading doesn’t mean you haven’t made a trading decision. Making a decision not to trade after analysis of your subject is a trading decision and a damn good one. So don’t churn your account just because you want to trade. You must trade with a purpose, a plan and manage your risk. The rest will take care of it self.
Good Luck,
Jim
I both bought and sold the yen today. Before the markets in the US opened.
I sold it when I saw the dollar dropped early but I got out quick. I don’t think there is anything other than temporary fear of that high price last week and likely some profit taking.
I think the yen will continue to fall. I took a bolder position than I usually do. I’m usually to scared to take a long term position, which seems to be four hours in the forex. LOL
With the dollar quite low, I bought. I think it will go over 82 in the next two weeks, actually I think it will do it this week. I may loose my butt but we’ll find out. I did the sidelines some last week. When I saw that rapid rise in the dollar, it didn’t feel right to me. Sure enough it is falling now.
I know it will drive you crazy but if the dollar falls too much I’ll buy gold as a hedge. I’m getting better at making a trade and closing the software and giving it some time for what i think will happen happens. If this were real money, I’d probably be on the sidelines too.
I’m beginning to think I wont be able to open a live account in the USA at all. I think I’m going to have to find a broker in Europe.
Hi Rusty,
I don’t understand the reason you would shop for an offshore broker but having said that I would be very careful. There is no assurance you are going to see your profits or your principal back. Many will also churn your account and leave you broke with delayed quotes, bad fills etc.
If a person wants access to a higher leverage position than that’s possible. Instead of the U.S. leverage of 50-1 you can go offshore and get 100-1 some as high as 300-1. I personally liked the 100-1 ratio but the Democrats got there hands on it and reduced the leverage.(Barney) I can just tell you from people I know that none of them have had success with offshore retail brokers.
And if you get taken, to whom would you call? So just be careful about offshore retail accounts especially being an American.You might find your own bank may not accept the transfer from your offshore account to your domestic when you request a draw down. Anyway just thought I would pass it on.
Hi Rusty,
By the way I am not opposed to trading gold I simply suggested that you may be learning to buy gold on the platform you are currently using, then change to a new one and find you can’t trade gold on the new platform.
On my platform there is literally every market in the world available to me. Stocks, bonds, ETF, commodities, real estate and the best one is private traded stocks. I can’t trade them because they are huge acquisitions but it is interesting to see the buying and selling going on in it.
Anyway I don’t trade gold I use it as one indicator but it all depends on your platform. That’s why I have 8 monitors in my office. It cover every market known to man but very few beginning traders have what I have and most will have a single platform.
And whatever is on that platform is what they trade and most of the time you can’t trade commodities and currencies from the same retail broker. So for all of you who are reading this, Rusty brings out a good point. If you want to trade various markets IE. commodities and Forex at the same time without opening several different brokerage accounts you better make sure you trade with a broker that has that ability because even though it is expanding most retail currency broker do just that, they retail currencies and that’s all.
Hope it helps,
Jim
Good morning everyone,
Or I should say good morning Arizona. Anyway it’s about 8 am Arizona time and I got up and saw where my stop was hit about 2am this morning. So I took a loss for about 50 pips but I entered again with a long position at 8.30 level. I am still fishing around for a signal that will allow me to take strong position. For example.
When I am in the markets fishing for trend signals I expect to lose a lot of conflicts. It is true that a decision to sit on the side lines is a trading decision and a good one at times but it doesn’t provide you with the same feel for the markets as with skin in the game. (refer to my post in the forum) Having skin (money)in the game paints an entirely different perspective. Now having said that I do a lot of sitting around. But I do more fishing than anything.
I will place a small position as I did yesterday with money I intend to flush down the drain. In other words I don’t want to lose the money but I am prepared to. That’s why I make it a small position. I am simply looking for signals to hit a home run with. Then when I recognize it I load up my position. So yesterday I placed a small position of 1 contract. I fish around and see how it reacts or in this case where it gets taken out and how far it moves against me. I am looking for strength or weakness signals. Stability or failure.
In this case even though I took a overnight position that procured a 60 pip loss I re-entered at 80.30 with a 1 contract position. If my position shows power and my research indicates strength I will add to my position but I very seldom add to a losing position. As I wrote in the forum, I lose a lot. But it is not without purpose. I am fishing for signals. There is no faster way to find a trend or test your theories than to throw money at it. And I do.
But for those of you who have a small account that is difficult to do so you must do a lot of sitting on the sidelines until you your research provides you a signal.That’s called patience. That’s why you want to keep a minimum of two accounts. One you trade live with and the other you practice with. As in the forum I explained that I have three accounts and all serve a purpose. So there we have it. I took a hit last night on 1 contract found a base of stability and before the day is out I hope to be loaded for bear. I am up about 16 pips as I write and about every 20 pips I gain I will add another position. So assuming by the time the market hits lets say 81.0 again I would have increased my position about five times always with the markets money.
So you can see the 1 contract that was a losing fishing expedition could be wiped out in a very small move by the time I get loaded up. Now let me tell you I don’t like losses. But I will take a loss every time if it shows me where I can load up a 20-30 contract position and hit a home run. Traders say that losses are just part of the game. Bull hockey! Losses with purpose is part of the game. Never take a loss without a defining result. Never! Yes I lose a lot but I fight many little skirmishes a long the way to winning the war. I keep my losses small and my winnings big. It not any big secret, it’s simply smart trading and it assures my survival. That’s the key you must have money to play this game. And if you lose it the game is over.
So keep your losses small. Trade with a purpose. Fish with small hooks. And when the big one bites set the hook and hit your home run. Do not make this anymore complicated than it is. I read and hear about how hard this is from other investors. Mainly from beginners and people who invest in stocks and other gentlemen games. Neither one knows what they are doing. Some people can’t or won’t trade currencies. For what ever reasons. I don’t care and neither should you. If you like or think you would like to trade currencies than learn all you can before throwing money at it. Then when you open up a live account throw small amounts of money at it. And you keep doing that until you have read, learned and traded your way to success.
Good Luck and great trading,
Jim
Yeah, I quickly lost $600 this morning, if I had been on a $500 account I would have been out. I didn’t trade big, only half a lot but I still don’t know how much money that is with Forexyard, they don’t make it easy and I wouldn’t use them for a real account. What their website states doesn’t appear accurate. I’ll try to watch how much my cash goes down on the next trade.
Since I have $100,000 of virtual money I was able to safe it. Like you said, having dollars in there made me acutely aware of what was going on and it wasn’t good.
I spotted a sudden sharp decline in the dollar but I felt it wasn’t justified so I stayed in but to buffer my loss in case I was wrong, I sold the dollar a couple of times next with a take profit position set to a conservative amount. Again, I was going with what I believe, that the dollar will rise. I was all in, right or wrong.
The dollar is now rising I don’t know if it will rise enough today for me to get back into the black but I strongly believe it will soon. I’m staying in or going broke.
I looked at stocks, US stocks were down, gold was taking no solid direction, nothing seemed to indicate the dollar was headed for a lower value.
The reason for the decline may be the sharp climb last week. There ws some profit taking in mass, causing other investors, especially those using automated trading software to panic and sell and creating the falling dollar. I don’t know if I was right but it made sense. At one point my long positions on the dollar had lost $900. I have three still open. Right now that is down to $119 loss. and I made over $1800 on the sell of the dollar in my hit and run trades this morning.
Now when I sold I sold big. My reasoning was if the dollar starts to rise when I was still in it my long positions would cover it. Then I saw all my trades go negative. So, I closed the software and went to work on something else. i felt good about my positions and I thought the dollar would fall more before it went back up. It did, I hit my stop profit before the dollar turned around and boom, I made money.
I’m telling you, I have the gift. haha. I sure wasn’t feeling that way though when all those minus signs were sitting in front of my play money. haha
Hello again,
Well I had my cup of coffee and I think I am finally coherent enough to make a comment. As I indicated a few posts ago I predicted the Peso would hit the 43.0 mark and has. It’s curious that it has fallen to the 43.0 level and oil has dropped in price? Hmmmm. Cold it be inflation? I don’t know but I need to find out. Anyway it is good news for you that have been following and hung on to your dollars as I have suggested. Now on to my trade this morning.
I went long the dollar/yen position at the 80.30 level and tho rocky it seems to be holding. I am currently at 80.33. It may be trying to find a bottom and start range trading which is OK with me. Even if it stayed there for a day or so it would be a strong sign for me to load up on my position. But it hasn’t and I will wait. But all looks good at the moment. Now on to the Philippine/China oil game.
This subject matter concerns all who live there, want to go there or trade currencies. This could be a game changer for everyone. It won’t happen in the morning but it is an event you should be aware of. Simply for the possibility. China claims sovereignty over the South China Sea islands. These are disputed by Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan and of course the Philippines.
This political maze clouds the oil and gas production business in the Asia/Pacific and retards development in some potential exploration spots. That is a direct conflict and is at odds with the increasing demand for energy from that region. The likely hood for conflict between the Philippines and China over this issue may be money. This Asia/Pacific area is large with complex geology and equally complex politics. Discovery costs are rising faster in other parts of the globe and that will affect economic development decisions.
Thus the one with the large purse is the likely one that would explore the deep region of the findings. You add the might of military strength and the answer is China. The Philippines is one of the more active exploration areas in the region. Otto energy has just completed a seismic survey and it estimates total oil in place is between 22 MMBBL and 713 MMBBL with a mean of 290 MMBBL.
So with those results, it is going to be interesting to see what the Philippines is going to do with that info and it is really going to be interesting to see how China reacts depending upon where the exploration takes place. Perhaps it may be shallow enough for the Chinese to look away. But I wouldn’t expect the same action once the deep sea exploration begins and encroaches upon what the Chinese declares it’s own. Stay tuned it is going to get interesting for us all.
But for now the Peso is above the 43 level. My trade was entered at the 80.30 area and is sitting at the 80.40 level and looking solid. It’s another 78 degree weather in Phoenix and Gwen is already starting to pack our bags for vacation. I am not sure I am going to leave this position trade on when I leave for vacation. It depends how loaded I am with contracts on it. I started with 1 contract and I am currently in a 2 contract position with it. I would like to have a 10 contract position but it will have to get pretty strong. I will wait and see. So let’s play this one out and see where it leads us.
Good luck,
Jim
The US stock market is down this morning. You can almost put a rope on a pully and pull the dollar up and down against the peso based on what the US stock market does! Doesn’t always work that way with the yen.
The peso has been steady moving up but it has been in slow steps. It has been quite stable in the recent days. Something I wouldn’t expect to continue. haha
Hello to all of Rusty’s traders,
A moment to reflect;
Oil: It is election season for the President. As if the oil markets needed any more disturbance. We are most likely going to hear more talk from the Prez on Strategic Petroleum Reserves. (SPR )We are especially going to hear how he is going to use it to defend the American public from rising gas prices keep us safe from the big oil companies. Hog wash! Don’t you believe any of it. It’s simply politics. He can’t control gas prices any more than the man on the moon is made of green cheese. I am assuming there is a man on the moon.
If he wanted to bring about effective change in the gas prices he could but he won’t. He likes to spend money to much to consider that. Oh if it comes down to it he is going to say he is tapping the reserves to offset the price of oil. He can’t do that either. First of all he doesn’t set the price of oil that is a world pricing figure. Besides the reserve only has enough oil in it to supply the U.S. for about a month and the pricing dynamics are just not confined in the United States. So blow it off, he is simply trying to cover his rear for election purposes. Do not trade off his crap. It will lose you money every time. If he is one of your indicators you are in big trouble. You have been warned.
Philippines: The beautiful country of the Philippines is entering into a zone of unknown. The price of oil is rising coupled with an already crammed and expensive power grid. They have linked 20 % of their economy to China which is experiencing a slowdown not to mention potential conflict in the South China Sea. The Philippines is basically a self absorbing country. They are currently experiencing a deficit and there is no Philippine domestic economy to pin their hopes on growth as the world slows down.
If you add the thought of purchasing power eroding due to inflation and a controlled currency with the average citizen bearing the blunt economic force of governmental surperficial investment projects in lieu of actual consumer sector development it weighs even heavier on a country that includes an already dormant work force. It also makes them very sensitive to Mother Nature’s wrath to make wild swings in their commodity prices. The Peso has nowhere to go but fall against the dollar.
Beginning traders: This probably should be an entire take on its own but I will try to cover it briefly. If you are a beginner in the currency markets and you have been follow my trades and especially the one I am in now you had better read between the lines and learn. The question? How much money do I need in my account to trade? Access to the worlds markets with leverage increases the importance of the role capital plays in your account. The smallest move can be exploited for great gains. The ability to replicate and implement the size of trades when the opportunity arises to reap these gains is paramount-it is the difference of the professional trader and the new or less skilled trader.
Following my comments doesn’t mean you can trade or mimic my moves. I have a lot more money in my trading accounts than you. I can stand to lose and yet gain. You cannot. I can draw down a weekly salary. You cannot. It is the dream of every beginning trader to take a small amount and become a millionaire. The reality is it probably won’t happen. So my comments are for you to learn not to mimic because you most likely can’t. It takes money to trade like I trade. You must build up your account albeit slowly, up to a risk and financial level you desire. Not mine, but yours. For if you mimic my trades, you learn nothing.
Just a thought,
Jim
George Bush certainly used the oil reserves to lower the price of gasoline. At least when he hit them the prices went down. I thought he was taking a play out of the George Bush playbook.
The only way I could mimic your moves is make them when you do. I started almost two weeks to late.
Besides, I still don’t know exactly what your moves are. I know you started trading in the yen about three weeks ago, made a mint, and started backing out. If you let your original investment stand over that two week time you have nerves of steel my friend. LOL 
I’m getting a little never too. I have take profits in on my long dollar position and I didn’t intend to this morning. Now I’m trying to decide if I should take them out. Or leave them there.I’m not sure I can take them out, I don’t think the system will let me but it will allow me to raise them. I’m going to take another look. I may just buy at the new lower price instead.
Good Morning from Arizona!
I hope all is well for everyone. Well as I indicated earlier the dollar/yen is all over the map. Which leads me to today’s comment. Cherry picking. Now get your mind out of the gutter! Trying to catch short profits in the foreign exchange market is tough, just because of the constant movement. It can be done and I know some who do it. Let me describe to you who they are.
They are most likely young. Like to gamble. They are adrenaline junkies and crave the excitement. In short they are addicts.They grow old before their time and will almost surely out live their trading account because it has an even shorter life span. They all are of varied backgrounds. The would be traders that come into my office are of the garden type variety. I see young ones, old ones, educated ones, knuckleheads, boneheads, housewives, new age grandmothers and a few that need a tinfoil hat on, you know, the moon people. Now out of that group who would you expect has the ability to become a good and solid trader? Give up? The answer is; I don’t know either.
Trading is a personal experience. Both learning and trading. Some people get it and others never will. Let me explain; Once a cat sits on a hot stove, he won’t sit on that stove again. But, he won’t sit on a cold one either. Traders are not like that. Once a trader sits on a hot stove, he will sit on that one again and as many more as he can find. He will sit there and burn his little smokin behind off till he runs out of money.
Trading is like that. A trader can get burnt and not want to trade at all. (freeze up)(quit)Then the other is willing to jump into any trade without checking the temperature. (junkie) Neither learn from their experiences. Trading is full of losers. As I said in another post, that includes me. Perhaps way more than the eye of the reader can imagine. But I lose with purpose. I am looking for something. The junkie looks for nothing but the rush.
So, what does all this babbling mean. If you are a beginner, learn on a practice account. And since your trading with their money trade with reckless abandonment. Try guessing, try short term positions, try taking a position just to burn out your account. See what happens with each folly you conduct. Trade,learn,fail,learn,win,learn! Forex trading is a global activity. It can be complicated. It doesn’t have to be. The world has a rhythm. So does your currency. It mimics the world rhythm. Find it. Let me share one more story before I close.
Jack Nickalus was asked how one goes about learning to play golf. He responded, you grab you a club and hit it as hard as you can,you do that about a thousand times, then later I will teach you how to have rhythm. So hit your practice account as hard as you can and learn with every blow you take. Search for that rhythm, find your own rhythm.
Feel how the world rotates and how your thoughts and currency mimic that rotation. And trade like you deserve that tin foil hat that sits atop your head. And after you blow out 5 or 6 practice accounts you might just be one of the fortunate few that find their rhythm and can be proud of the little tin foil hat that sits upon your head. It is a hat of honor. No one can see it, except another who proudly wears it.
Good Luck,
jim
Hello again and welcome,
I hope some of you are following Rusty’s trades in the forum section. If not I encourage you go over and read his experiences has he travels through his trading adventures. Now on to my current trade.
As you know I am long dollar/yen at the 80.30 level. I was up 50 ticks, then down 30 ticks, then up 60 ticks and down 20 ticks, now I am about even. The dollar/yen can’t decide what the BOJ is going to do. I said some time back that at one point the traders are not going to allow the BOJ to jawbone their way to deflation without some financial commitment.
The market is considering testing that BOJ position. So, you have a choppy market. I am up about ten or so ticks as I write. I feel pretty good about my position right about now. Could I have made money this morning?. Yes I could have taken profits at the 60 tick level but that’s not what I was in the trade for. I am still looking to see what the BOJ or the traders are going to do.
One of them will break this position and I intend to hang around and find out, although Gwen did take some profits at the 30 tick level. It drives her crazy to trade next to me and not understand why I didn’t take the profits. She was running around the house hollering that it would have paid for our vacation! She is right. It would have. But here is what she is seeing and hasn’t learned yet. I talked about this in a post above. You must distinguish the difference between money and pips. I won’t elaborate simply refer you to the above post.
So all in all I feel pretty good about it. I started with 1 contract and currently have 2 and will load up if I see a solid move on an uptick. If I see a solid downward move I will liquidate and have to listen to Gwen tell me how right she was the rest of the day. I must be prepared for the traders to test the BOJ at these levels so it’s no cake walk for this trade.
However if the BOJ stands their ground about deflating the yen then I am positioned well to gain huge profits. I would like to be able to load up to about 10-12 contracts before I am through with this trade. Only time will tell.
Gwen is still pacing back and forth, mumbling something that sounds like a blend of Tagalog, English and Wallstreet jibberish. It’s new to me and I haven’t figured it out yet. But I suppose it is just her way of trying to earn her little tin foil hat. I think I will call it “Tagalishjibberish”
Good Luck,
Jim
Haha, Gwen is going to kill you some day. Did you include her in your will yet? haha Hey Gwen, get him to add me too and I’ll help.
Just kidding “Dear Leader” haha
Thanks for the plug. Right now I’m too tired to trade. I can’t think clear. i slept for a long time but I have a feeling I will be falling back to sleep.
I do have a trade open in my Oanda account. I’m afraid to look. Its been almost 24 hours since I did and I don’t think I put any tp or sl on it. I like their platform more but it drains more recourses. I will need a PC just for trading. I’m a long way from needing 12 monitors though. LOL I wonder how an iPad would work for trading. I could lay back in the bed and hold it in my hands and fall to sleep cuddling all my earnings in my arms and write it off as a tax expense. I will anyway, any computer I buy is used for making money.
Folks that’s a good reason to have a home business, you can turn a lot of things into business expenses. Legally and rightfully so. Now don’t go putting your Wii on your tax return. LOL Well if you form a corporation, you’ll likely be able to. Then it can be an employee benefit to encourage exercise and provide a useful break area for your employees. YOU.
Some agent could come in and say that’s personal and disallow the expense and add it to your personal return as a dividend. They’d likely be right to do it but it will probably get overturned in appeals. Google could probably get away with something like that so you will likely be able to as well. Just don’t expect the IRS to think too highly of it, increasing your chance of audit and thus finding other things the agent can look into. 
Awww, I ramble when I’m tired. 
Yeah, I see what you mean by testing. The market wants direction.
It is moving very little now. The trades I made late yesterday have not budged much at all. Lost a little but not much at all.
Yes the market went to about another 50 tick move upward on my position then reverted back to about 80.18. When it reached 80.25 I sold 3 more contracts so I’m sitting on five now.
When she saw I didn’t take the profits again about an hour ago Gwen said she is was going to take up drinking. She told me the next time it gets that high that if I would liquidate that I wouldn’t have to clean the house anymore. I think I have finally found her weakness. She is going to faint when she watches me load up some more if this market keeps range trading.
The more the range trading the better I like this trade. Now if it will just tighten up a little and head north I will liquidate and buy her a new vacuum cleaner! ha ha
With the small amount I trade, I need it to be bigger than that.
What’s a tick? If I don’t now, I’m sure many others don’t.
I simply refer to it, as the same as a pip. A bad habit but slang trader talk. Kind of like Tagalishjibberish. ha!
Hello traders!
Before I turned off my trading devises last night I placed my stops and added 3 more contracts to my position. Then placed stair stepped orders to add 5 more. Then off to bed.
There was a blood curdling scream this morning that got me running out of bed to see what was happening and to see if Gwen was OK. There she was sitting in front of my monitors checking my trades. I never should have shown her how to read my screens much less turn them on. In short she saw where all my positions had been filled and the market stood almost a 100 ticks (pips) from my beginning position. So much for me ever cleaning house again.
For those who may have missed the above posts. She had promised if I didn’t miss the next opportunity to liquidate my position at the next profit level I wouldn’t have to clean the house again. The money that is being made on this trade is great, but never cleaning the house again is the better trade!
So here this is where I stand on this trade. As you know I predicted a choppy market upon my entry. I also thought the traders might test the wherewithall of the BOJ. I bought in small (1) contract then as you know I added another when I thought I saw a bottom being established. Then more choppy weather. Pretty rough, but mainly trying to hold the upside of my position. Providing a more solid base for my thoughts.
Then as you know I added 3 more contracts and placed orders at various levels for an additional 5. All were filled. I am currently positioned with 10 contracts at an average of 70 tick profit. That’s a lot of money.
You now see why I don’t ever have to clean this house again. But by following this trade and reading what I did over the last two trades you will find one thing in common that both had. A commitment to my plan. Taking early profits was not the plan of this trade and the other.
I studied, researched and planned where I thought the market could go and even included the choppy even dramatic movements. I was simply prepared for it. Nothing in these last two trades this month surprised me. Yes I could have been blindsided but I would have recognized that also and cut my losses and regrouped but I didn’t have to because I had a plan. And I stick to my plan until something proves me wrong.
So as I write and prepare to go on vacation and much to the delight of Gwen I have liquidated all my positions in this trade. I was filled at 81.14 I still have options that were hit and they will be in place until the cows come home. So for those of you who have been following go back to my first trade and walk through them again. It won’t take long and read them over till you get back to this trade.
I have briefly described each step and position I took as you followed. It has been a very successful month. I only wish each could experience the same and you can. So, I am taking Gwen to Mississippi and the Grand Old Opry in Tenn. Hey, I don’t picked the locations , she does. I am going to play poker in Gulfport and then she is going to two-step her way through Nashville. Ha! We intend to stay 2-3 weeks traveling around by car and see other sites she has not seen and perhaps me too.
So for now, read my trades in this blog. See what I did. See how I thought. Because you see the results. Again don’t emulate my trades simply use them to learn from. Adapt and create your own trading methods. But keep learning. I’m not sure when or if I will post again, perhaps I will post a little while we travel.
But for now I suggest you follow Rusty’s trading in the forum and his comments on this blog. It will be great reading and learning material. So for now Adios and I will see you when I see you. Good Luck and good trading. But more importantly great thinking!
Now hereeeeees Rusty!
It’s been a pleasure, thanks
Jim
That’s good news Jim. I places some orders last night before I finally passed out. I haven’t looked yet as I’ve been slaving at the keyboard, writing an article for the blog. I wrote it half asleep. I’ve been sleepy constantly now for three days. Getting plenty of sleep, I’m still exhausted no matter how much I sleep. I know I should take a break but that conflicts with my goal of earning $5K a month online by the end of they year. That’s going to be a hard goal for me to reach. If I can get half way there though, it will become much easier. Then I can do more outsourcing.
I’m typing now with my eyes closed. The article I wrote will probably be a mess since I’m sleeping while typing. LOL Jessie just read it and is publishing it as I read it. Now I’m going to close Chrome and open firefox and go take a look at my trades. Chrome is having many issues with flash on my PC. Not on Jessie’s though.
You’ll be happy to know my life account on Oanda has been approved and is waiting for me to fund it.
Hi Rusty,
Gwen has got the car packed and loaded and we are going to leave in the early morn. That is really good news about your account, I thought you would fly through it with ease.
Keep on your practice account until you develop your trading style. Don’t get in any hurry, you have a live account now. Use it only when you are ready. Conservative trading. Survival, that’s the name of the game. I wish you great success. Go get’em my friend,
Jim
I will only invest what i can afford to loose. It may be sometime before I will trade live. There are many things I need and some I just want. Camera stuff is a want unless mine dies and it could. Its old. I probably should have bought it when it was $1400. It’s back up to $1800 now.
I shouldn’t deplete my accounts by that much it would be drastic at my current levels. I exercised restraint. 
I might put $100 a month in the trading account so it wont be soon. Betting these small amounts though, it seems unlikely one would loose all $50 of $50. One surely doesn’t earn $50 at $50. I’m earning pennies. So I’m setting my T/P much higher and just wait now. Might be better to make 100 small nickel profits though. LOL I can see why one guy recommended $5000 to start. Investing $1000 at a time would be more productive.
I may take a hard look at gold as the profits there can be a lot more in a short time. So could the looses.
And the looses probably come a lot more often there.
I have to study leverage. You are right, I can adjust my leverage. I thought leverage was trading with the use of other peoples money. That’s what leverage means to me, a loan. LOL
I must have been trading a lot more money than I thought I was when using Metatrader. Oanda offers that platform too. I’ll likely use both. They both have things about the I like and don’t like. I will do trades in Oaada though. Use the other for information.
Have good trip. The dollar to yen is taking a trip south right now.
Oh my, now that I’m using Oanda, I can tell how much money I’m investing. Yes, I made money last night. I had a take profit in. I’m not sure if I did that intentionally. I don’t remember. With Oanda they try to make it easy for you and auto select it with a very conservative number in there. But the big problem is now I’m investing like I would with my real money.
So I took a buy dollar position of $50 risking 10% of my pot of $500 if that’s what I had. Guess what I made from this. I made a whopping .561 cents. LOL
I hope that was because Oanda “helped” me by putting that auto take profit in there. If not, at $50 a pop, I can see I’m going to need a whole lot of tradin’ going on to get to $1000. 
Welcome to the real world Rusty Ferguson. Maybe it will help if I set my piano on fire.
yes, yes, I know many of you have not clue… I’m referring to Jerry Lee Lewis playing Whole lot of Shakin’ Going On. They made him open for Elvis and he’s a proud man. So while he was playing the song, Actually I think it was great ball of fire, he set his piano on fire. As he walked off the stage he told Elvis… “Follow that.” haha What a character.
Hi Rusty,
I think your platform has a leverage ability to it. Meaning you can change the amount of leverage you use in your trading account. So you could drop down say from 50% leverage to 25% or less I think. For small accounts that really helps because you can control your trading a lot better.
It’s great to have the ability to trade with a lot of leverage but that is also a double edge sword. So perhaps consider reducing your leverage and assure your learning curve is extended until you can get up and running. It will help you survive if you reduce your leverage position on your account. Try it.
Good Luck,
Jim