Typhoon In The Philippines May 2011
Looks like we have another typhoon headed our way. Well for the Philippines. Its direct path is not well known yet but it has a 10% chance of impacting the Philippines with category one winds in 120 hours.
UPDATE: Tropical Depression Four is now Tropical Storm Songda and is expected to become a full typhoon. Once it arrives within the Philippines, it will be renamed for the Philippines but this name will apply only to the Philippines. I have a bad feeling about Songda. It is still more than three days out but we have a farily strong thunderstorm in Bogo City at this time.
Update May 24th
probability for CAT 1 typhoon in the Philippines is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
At this time this article was fist published it was named only as Tropical Depression Four and hasn’t yet reached a tropical storm. It is projected to take pretty much the same path that Tropical Depression three which did become a Typhoon.
Graphic From Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)
The nerve of this storm popping up when I don’t have time to write about it ha-ha. Hopefully, it will be even less of an event than the last storm. That one was not a major storm but around 40 people lost their lives. So it’s always wise to pay heed to these storms.
Twenty Typhoons In The Philippines Per Year
The Philippines gets about 20 typhoons in a year. Luzon is generally the worst hit but all along the Eastern Coast Line is threatened except for Mindanao. Cebu doesn’t see many typhoons, but we did have two my first year.
Leyte and Samar are often hit and I can’t help but say, “I can see Leyte from my home.” Hmm, seems like someone said something like that about Russia ha-ha.
A typhoon in the Philippines is common during this time of the year. They start in May. Typhoon activity in the Philippines falls substantially in November. The most active months are October and September.
Sometimes people dismiss tropical storms but the most deadly storm to ever hit the Philippines was Tropical Storm Uring in 1992. The floods killed between 5000 and 8000 people! A typhoon in the Philippines is a serious thing but a tropical storm can be as well.
Hopefully, my Internet connection will not be affected this time. If so, it gives me time to work on my eBooks and my pictures. As long as the power does not go out too. Pretty minor inconvenience to me when you consider people die in these typhoons.
If you’re living in the Philippines or care about the people that do, stay alert for changes as this storm is likely to become a typhoon in the Philippines.
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Tagged with: Living In The Philippines • Tropical Storm Songd • Typhoon
Filed under: Philippine Weather
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Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Yap (9.5 N, 138.0 E)
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
The tropical depression has become a tropical storm and now has a name: Songda
Tropical Storm SONGDA (04W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours
Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Yap (9.5 N, 138.0 E)
probability for TS is 40% currently
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please email TSRhelpdesk@tropicalstormrisk.com with your requested change(s).
To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please email TSRhelpdesk@tropicalstormrisk.com with “unsubscribe” in your email subject line.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 May, 2011 0:00 GMT
Tropical Storm SONGDA (04W) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Soliven (17.0 N, 122.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 120 hours
Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours
My asawa told me about Uring (Thelma) when we used to chat on YM. I googled the storm and was shocked about the devastation and the lost of life in Ormoc. We stayed at the Sabin Resort on each of my visits so I am very familiar with Ormoc. We were eating at a small restaurant next to the canal that was put in after the storm. My prayers goes out to the victims since there are probably many memories from survivors of the tradegy.
I was told that Ormoc had a flood last month. I’m not sure that it is true though. A Filipina told me “big water” in her home.
Rusty,
Leyte has been getting alot of rain during April. My asawa tatay drives a truck for the government. I know they were talking about flooding around Tacloban. There was also a land slide that killed several people. It wouldn’t surprise me if there was flooding also in Ormoc.
Here is a link Typhoon Thelma. It’s from the Typhoon 2000 website.
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/stormstats/12WorstPhilippineTyphoons.htm
Jack, Yeah, my GF is from Tacloban and they had more flooding than usual there. Her father’s house was flooded and it has never done that before, at least not that Jessie remembers.
There was another tropical storm this month that a friend told me caused her place to flood but I can’t believe much of what she says.
Might be true, might not. Toss of a coin.
Ormoc is a LONG way from Tacloban. It is on the opposite end of the island and on the opposite side of the coast. There was a tropical storm, lots of rain in Cebu so it could have.
It is raining here now. So far this storm has been a non-event for Cebu but that may be about to change.
We had a few thunderstorms and it has been extra hot but that is it. It often gets very hot before a tropical storm or typhoon because of the high humidity and I guess the storm is sucking up hot air from the equator.
Projections last night indicated that this would MOSTLY miss the Philippines. It has turned a bit north but it will likely be close enough to be a serious concern.
It is no longer a Tropical Storm. It is now a Cat 1
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours