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 I believe that China and the Philippines are already at war. No shots have been fired yet, at least, that we know of. I believe China wants war and has already made up its mind there will be one unless the Philippines gives China everything it wants. Oh, China denies that it wants war of course.  However they also recently used these words when references the conflict:

Once the war erupts, China must take resolute action to deliver a clear message to the outside world it does not want a war, but definitely has no fear of it,” the editorial said.

These words came from a government controlled Chinese editorial.  Do you see those words? It doesn’t say if war erupts it read when the war erupts.

So What Is This Chinese Philippines War Over?

China is being the bully in the Asian Seas, likely doing things not in the best interest of the USA and certainly not in the best interest of the Philippines.

Map of Scarboroug Shoal

China is claiming Scarborough Shoal Island as its territory. These islands are clearly within the territorial waters of the Philippines. There was an international agreement that both the Philippines and China are a part of and signed that clearly make these islands part of the Philippines. China knows full well that it is taking a position that will cause conflict.

According to China the area within that red line belongs to China. There are many nations claiming some of those areas but the only power that can challenge China is the USA. The USA has its war table pretty full right now.

Map Showing Areas Cliamed By China

Graphic Source

From the map on the right, you can see that Scarborough is near Zambales which is located on the main Map Showing Location of Scaraborugh Shoal In Relation to LuzonIsland of the Philippines known as Luzon and host the national capital. So this is not some obscure area of the Philippines. Zambales is a major Philippines tourist destination and only a few hours from the capital.

First some background information before we get to my opinion on the matter. I have formed an opinion that I am not happy with and find it alarming.  There are groups of island far off the coast of the Philippines and close to Malaysia.  These are called the Spratly Islands.

It wasn’t long after I got here that Jessie told me that many countries claim those island as part of their land.  Much of these islands are often submerged. It depends on the tides. A number of the island come and go which is probably why they have not been overly developed.

Posturing in the Spratly Island areas is nothing new but this is latest conflict is close to Philippines main island making it a major turn of events.

Location of Sptatly Islands

So why does anyone care about these island? The Spratly islands are rich in oil, fishing and other natural resources.

Over the past few months I have read reports of China going into these areas and destroying the natural resources during its mining and fishing operations.

Will The USA Protect The Philippines?

Many civilians in the USA seem to think the American government is going to come to the rescue of the Philippines. I see things around the web that indicate people think China is flexing its muscle and that China won’t do anything because of the USA. On the surface it would seem that way to me too. I can though, think of several reasons why the USA will not. I’ll talk about some of them here but I’m not going to go into the issue that the USA is already in two wars with a third looming on the horizon.  I can’t help but wonder if this is why China needs to expand its control in Asia. This could be part of China’s posturing to support Iran!

The USA Holds A Grudge For The Closure of American Bases In The Philippines

There are many within the government of the USA that hold a deep grudge regarding the Philippines causing the USA to withdraw its military bases from the Philippines. On my FaceBook Page, a comment was left today that I think reflects the thinking of a lot of those within the government and especially the pentagon.  Here is the comment:

Mel Hill: Angel Esteban@ I am a retired USAF and spent a lot of time at Clark AB. Since the good people of the Philippines asked us to leave has the moral factor “prostitution” changed? Since my retirement I have returned to the Philippines many times. The “sinful” activities in Angeles city is still doing well. And before you blame it on the the foreign tourist you need to look around. I would say that 80% of the clubs are patronized by local Filipinas. There is GRO’s all over the country which has nothing to do with US military but the local economy. They have learned to use what God gave them, that’s all many have. Getting back to the base removals, This was not done because of the local population wanted them out, It was because of the corrupt politicians that didn’t think they where getting their fair share.

I don’t agree with everything Mel says but that’s not the issue. The issue is that he is expressing the grudge held by many power career bureaucrats within the US government.. These are the people that run government. Yes, they work for the president and are bound by the laws of congress but these high level employees control what gets worked on, where the money is spent and everything else that makes their agency grind out the power of the government.

There employees will be working on matters that employees have been lead to believe are important to their boss. Everyone wants to move up the ladder and you do that by giving your boss what he wants.

I don’t know what kind of fallout there was for some government workers when the US abandoned the bases in the Philippines. If careers were damaged then there are going to be people within government that want their revenge. I have a causal contact that is quite close to some of the people that were affected by the closure of those bases. He assures me that there is a healthy dose of revenge coming to the Philippines from those individuals.

We are not hearing anything from the President or the Secretary of State on this matter. These long standing bureaucrats are not likely to be advising Obama and Clinton but they are the people that draw up reports and analyze intelligence from which the president and secretary level officials make their decisions. One should not underestimate the influence these kinds of people have. They may be buried away in the annals of the pentagon but they can have a major impact at the highest levels. I know this because I saw cases where I influenced the highest levels with my lowly position as a GS 12 civil service employee.

Is it in the USA’s interest to protect the Philippines? I’m not sure it matters that much either way to the USA. China expanding its influence matters but what can the Philippines do to enhance the position of the USA?  What does the Philippines give the USA? On the other hand, China is an important economy and that does have a major impact on the USA.

The Philippines may give a lot to the USA but I don’t know what it is. I have an interest but I’m trying to look at it objectively so I can understand what is happening and what the future may hold. I won’t find the answers following my personal sentimental desires. I’m not a player in this.

The only thing I can think of doing is to write a congressman and to get the word out to people. Americans are generally not aware that this issue is even in play. If you know of ways the Philippines is important to and enhances the USA’s position, please leave a comment and explain it to me. One way the Philippines gave something back to the USA was with those bases. What does the Philippines offer the government of the USA now?

The Philippines offers me and other expats and visitors a lot. My life is much better here than it would be in the USA. Expats have almost no voice at all and I have some ideas on how to improve that, I just do not have the means nor the know how to carry that out. I have quite a large business idea regarding that but it is outside of my reach.

As you know, the USA has many bases around the world. The USA could use this situation to send a strong message to the governments where bases are located. That message could be something like “Just because you don’t need us right now are you sure you want in the future? Before you throw us out, remember the Philippines.”

By Rusty Ferguson

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